Excess deaths in N.S. recently hit peak since start of COVID-19 pandemic

New data shows Nova Scotia recently experienced its largest number of excess deaths — deaths above what would be normally anticipated — since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Statistics Canada's excess mortality tracker was updated to include the four-week period of Nov. 27 to Dec. 24, 2022. There were 262 more deaths in the province than expected.

The previous four-week high was 155 deaths, covering Jan. 16 to Feb. 12, 2022, which coincided with the arrival of the Omicron variant in December 2021.

The record number of deaths doesn't come as a surprise to Tara Moriarty, the lead for the COVID-19 Resources Canada project.

The group does modelling to help members of the public better understand the COVID-19 situation. It receives funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada for its work.

The group's work includes calculating a COVID-19 hazard index for each province.

"There's a reason why we kept saying through the late summer and fall [2022] that it was severe, severe, severe, because that's what the numbers were showing," said Moriarty.

Moriarty believes the excess mortality is mostly being caused by COVID-19.

The Nova Scotia government says it's confident in the number of deaths it attributes to COVID-19.

Health Department spokesperson Khalehla Perrault said there were 73 COVID-19 deaths in November and December 2022.

The last time Nova Scotia had a week where deaths were fewer than what would normally be expected was in May 2022.

Province not saying what's fuelling excess mortality

The province has repeatedly declined interview requests to speak with officials about what is causing the excess mortality.

"Unless suddenly there's been an enormous, terrifying increase in fatal car crashes, you need to understand why so many more people are dying than normal," said Moriarty.

She's calling on the province to explain what is behind the numbers.

Another possible cause of excess mortality is opioid overdoses.

Based on preliminary data, the province believes there were 62 deaths last year from opioid overdoses. That number is not unusually high — there were higher numbers in 2012, 2014 and 2017.

Tim Caulfield, a misinformation expert who is the Canada Research Chair in Health Law and Policy at the University of Alberta, said he's worried that excess deaths will be "weaponized" by people who spread misinformation.

Anti-vaccine rhetoric

Caulfield said the COVID-19 vaccines are safe, despite some claims they are causing large numbers of people to die.

"On the contrary, we have robust vaccine oversight and vaccine monitoring," he said.

"It's happening internationally, and in fact there have been studies that have explored this very question, so [there's] no evidence to support it. And yet it continues to circulate."

A recent report examined how misinformation affected COVID infections, hospitalizations and deaths in Canada from March to November of 2021. It calculated the spread of misinformation cost at least 2,800 lives and contributed to over 2,000,000 Canadians refusing to get vaccinated.

Caulfield said anti-vaccine rhetoric during the pandemic is having a negative impact on general vaccine uptake, as well as people's confidence in vaccines.

Moriarty is urging people to take steps to protect themselves and others from COVID-19, such as masking and getting vaccinated.

"The risk is in fact serious for a really large segment of the Canadian population, particularly in places like Nova Scotia, which are considerably older on average than many other provinces," she said.

The median age of COVID-19 deaths since July 1, 2022, in Nova Scotia is 84.

The Nova Scotia government says 841 people in the province have died from COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic.