Nova Scotia tight-lipped about spike in deaths

Combing through Nova Scotia's death data, infectious diseases researcher Tara Moriarty offers up a simple but chilling conclusion about what's happening in the province.

"Unexpectedly high numbers of people are dying in an untimely fashion before they would normally," said Moriarty, who is an associate professor at the University of Toronto.

Statistics Canada tracks excess mortality, which is the actual number of deaths above what is expected.

For the first 10 months of 2022, there were 848 more deaths than expected in Nova Scotia. The province said 546 of those were due to COVID-19. That means almost 36 per cent of the deaths are attributable to other causes.

But it's unclear what those other causes are. The province declined interview requests with Health Department officials and the chief medical examiner.

Statistics Canada's excess mortality tracker was recently updated with data from Nova Scotia covering September and October 2022.

During those two months, it said there were 304 more deaths than expected. Health Department spokesperson Khalehla Perrault said there were 97 COVID-19 deaths during that time — up from 41 in the province's September and October epidemiology reports.

"There is sometimes a lag in reporting a COVID-19 death as it does not always appear immediately in the data system due to reviews and investigations, as appropriate," Perrault wrote in an email.

In Nova Scotia, deaths attributed to COVID-19 capture both cases in which coronavirus infection was the main cause and those in which it was believed to be a contributing factor. In cases where the cause of death is unknown or a person is suspected to have had COVID-19, tests are carried out to find evidence of the disease.

Statistics Canada tracks excess mortality in weekly blocks. The last time the estimate was negative for Nova Scotia was on May 21, 2022.

Moriarty is the lead for the COVID-19 Resources Canada project, which does modelling to help members of the public better understand the COVID-19 situation. It receives funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada for its work.

Moriarty is calling on the province to explain what is behind the persistent, positive excess mortality numbers. She worries that without an explanation, purveyors of COVID-19 misinformation will argue that COVID-19 vaccines are to blame.

While Moriarty says deaths from COVID-19 are likely the biggest cause of excess mortality, there could be other reasons, such as toxic drugs. Based on preliminary data, the province believes there were 63 deaths in 2022 from opioid overdoses. That number is not unusually high — there were a higher number of opioid toxicity deaths in Nova Scotia in 2012, 2014 and 2017. 

Importance of studying excess mortality

Kim McGrail, a professor at the School of Population and Public Health at the University of British Columbia, said it's important to pinpoint the causes of excess mortality because it "gives you a much, much better way to understand where you might intervene, what might need to change to correct what's going on."

Understanding the causes can be complex because the reasons may be interrelated. For example, McGrail said the pandemic has impacted people's ability to get medical care and diagnoses.

"It's pretty clear that there could have been lots of effects on people, including mortality, that go beyond just whether they had the virus or died because of the virus," she said.

Excess mortality explained in Alberta

In Alberta, there were roughly 10,000 excess deaths from January 2020 to November 2022. Officials there say 5,277 deaths during that period were due to COVID-19. But they cite other reasons as well, such as alcohol and drugs — particularly opioids — an aging population and greater demand on the health-care system.

CBC News asked the Nova Scotia government what is causing the excess mortality in this province, but did not receive a specific answer. A spokeswoman noted excess mortality "represents all deaths — cancer, suicide, heart disease, natural causes, etc. — not just COVID-19."

The department previously told CBC News that it watches epidemiological data for COVID-19 and all communicable diseases "very closely," and that "concerning trends will be communicated and responded to appropriately to protect the health of all Nova Scotians, as it has been done throughout the pandemic."

Since March 2020, the province says 796 people in Nova Scotia have died from COVID-19.