Growing number of retiring MLAs worrisome if more Tories leave swing ridings: political scientist

A political scientist says the growing number of Tory MLAs who aren't seeking re-election in 2023 is "disconcerting" for the Progressive Conservatives — but it'll get worse for the party if Winnipeg caucus members step away. 

Eight out of the 36 MLAs who sat in the PC caucus at the start of 2022 have either resigned or have signalled they don't intend to run for another term this fall, when Manitoba is slated to hold a general election. That churn represents 22 per cent of the PC caucus at the beginning of last year.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, said this is not fatal for the Tories, as most of the departing MLAs represent rural ridings in which the governing party is heavily favoured to win, with or without an incumbent MLA.

But the PCs can't say the same about most Winnipeg ridings, or competitive rural ridings such as Selkirk, where two-term MLA Alan Lagimodiere announced Tuesday he will not continue to represent after the next election.

"You can't win the government if you don't win many of the Winnipeg seats," Adams said in an interview on Tuesday. "You have to hold on to your incumbents in the PC party if you want to be re-elected."

To boost their chances, Adams said the Progressive Conservatives — which are floundering in opinion polls, especially in Winnipeg — need the name recognition of politicians who are proven winners.

While the departure of Lagimodiere may hurt the Tory's chances of holding the swing seat of Selkirk, other caucus members who've bowed out live in rural ridings likely to vote for the party again.

Those departing MLAs include deputy premier Cliff Cullen (Spruce Woods), Municipal Relations Minister Eileen Clarke (Agassiz) and backbenchers Ralph Eichler (Lakeside), Blaine Pedersen (Midland), Dennis Smook (La Verendrye) and Ian Wishart (Portage la Prairie).

As well, former finance minister Scott Fielding resigned his Kirkfield Park seat in June.  Former Winnipeg councillor Kevin Klein replaced Fielding in a byelection held in December.

3 Winnipeg PC MLAs yet to declare

The PCs do have some incumbents running in competitive Winnipeg races, including Families Minister Rochelle Squires in Riel and Health Minister Audrey Gordon in Southdale. But it's unclear who'll carry the Tory banner in three Winnipeg seats.

Myrna Driedger (Roblin), Cathy Cox (Kildonan-River East) and Shannon Martin (McPhillips) have yet to announce if they'll seek re-election.

Neither Driedger or Cox responded to requests for comment from CBC News by deadline. Martin said in a statement he had no announcement to make at this time.

"I have full confidence in Premier [Heather] Stefanson and the PC Party as we continue working together to make Manitoba better for all of us that live here," he said.

Adams suggested it matters more to the PCs to keep their urban MLAs, rather than their rural ones.

"If they lose those people and they have new faces running in those urban ridings, that's another factor against the PCs holding on to" these swing ridings, Adams said.

Outside Winnipeg, PC MLAs Reg Helwer (Brandon West), Brad Michaleski (Dauphin), Rick Wowchuk (Swan River) and Kelvin Goertzen (Steinbach) also haven't revealed their intentions regarding re-election this year.

Wowchuk said he'd make up his mind in the next couple of weeks. He said he's weighing a number of factors, including his age and health. He needs a hip replacement, he said.

Two more Winnipeg MLAs told CBC News they'll seek re-election. Sarah Guillemard said she's running again in Fort Richmond, while Andrew Micklefield will be nominated next week in Rossmere.

Even with incumbents, the PCs will be hard-pressed to win a number of Winnipeg seats. In the provincial capital, the opposition NDP holds a commanding 28-percentage-point lead over the PCs, a recent Probe Research poll suggests. 

Adams predicts the PC strategy in the upcoming provincial election will be to retain the seats it has. The party has nominated 21 candidates, but none yet in a riding held by the NDP or Liberals.

All 18 NDP and all three Liberal incumbents, meanwhile, intend to run again.

The New Democrats also have candidates selected in nearly every swing riding.

"I'm not surprised that the NDP has a lot of people in swing ridings already nominated, because those would be popular places to run," Adams said. 

The party has nominated or selected 37 candidates, including former NDP cabinet minister Ron Kostyshyn in Dauphin and former school trustee Jennifer Chen in Fort Richmond. The NDP held both those seats prior to 2016. 

Adams said he isn't surprised at the résumé of some NDP candidates, with experience in the education, health and union sectors.

Six NDP newcomers seeking elected office are teachers: Glen Simard (Brandon East), Mike Moyes (Riel), Mike Moroz (River Heights), Billie Cross (Seine River), Mitch Obach (Selkirk) and Robert Loiselle (St. Boniface).

The NDP has yet to attract a political candidate with the star power of a former Blue Bomber or city mayoral candidate, as the PCs did in a pair of 2022 byelections. Adams said the NDP's polling may be strong enough on its own to propel them to victory. 

The Manitoba Liberals, meanwhile, have nominated six candidates for the upcoming general election: three sitting MLAs, plus Willard Reaves to run against the PCs' Obby Khan in Fort Whyte in a rematch of the 2022 byelection in that constituency.

No other party has nominated candidates, according to Elections Manitoba. The lone independent to file papers so far is Cliff Graydon, a former PC MLA expelled from caucus in 2018 following harassment allegations.

Graydon ran unsuccessfully as an independent in the 2019 election.