For 2nd straight Winnipeg byelection, Manitoba's 3 main parties take the opportunity to miss an opportunity

For the second time in nearly nine months, Manitoba Progressive Conservatives were forced to endure a nail-biter of a byelection night where a star candidate barely eked out a victory in what was supposed to be a safe PC seat.

On Tuesday, former city councillor Kevin Klein became the PC MLA-elect for the western Winnipeg constituency of Kirkfield Park after squeaking past the NDP's Logan Oxenham by 160 votes.

Previous Kirkfield Park MLA Scott Fielding had won this seat for the PCs by more than 2,300 votes in both 2016 and 2019. But Klein, who enjoyed a citywide profile as a Winnipeg mayoral candidate, was only able to scrape past Oxenham, a corrections officer few people outside of NDP circles had heard of before this week.

This narrow byelection win followed PC MLA Obby Khan's 197-vote victory in a byelection in Fort Whyte, a seat where the PCs had utterly destroyed the competition in eight previous elections, dating back to 1999.

Taken together, the two close shaves spell potential trouble for the Progressive Conservatives in the suburban Winnipeg constituencies they have to win next year if they want to extend their government to a third term.

"It shows the PCs are weak and vulnerable," said Chris Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba.

"We saw that in Fort Whyte and now we've seen it in this election."

Unpopularity and uncertainty for PCs

The PCs are enduring a period of prolonged unpopularity in Winnipeg, a series of Probe Research polls suggest. This may be due to residual fallout from one of Canada's worst pandemic performances. It may also be the result of the unpopularity of former premier Brian Pallister and his successor, Heather Stefanson.

Whatever the case, if the PCs lose nine or 10 Winnipeg ridings in the election slated for October 2023, the NDP will almost certainly return to power and Wab Kinew will be Manitoba's next premier.

If the PCs struggle to retain seats like Fort Whyte and Kirkfield Park, the likes of Rossmere, Radisson, Seine River and McPhillips — among others — won't be cakewalks.

Perhaps that's why Stefanson described holding on to Kirkfield Park on Tuesday night as something of an impossibility, rather than a byelection her party should have won easily and without the final-poll drama that yielded a decision at 11:23 p.m.

"They said it couldn't be done, but I tell you we made it happen," Stefanson told fellow MLAs and other PC supporters at the Holiday Inn Winnipeg Airport West on Tuesday.

Parties promise 2023 victory, change

She went on to promise a third PC government term next year.

"I will tell you, we will come to victory in 2023, absolutely," the premier said.

Kinew, the NDP leader, took Klein's narrow victory over Oxenham as a signal his own party is destined to prevail next year.

"This is a clear sign that Manitobans want a change. You had a PC star candidate here in a seat that should be a safe seat for them," he said.

Compared to Fort Whyte, however, Kirkfield Park is less of a safe seat for the Tories. Sharon Blady served as the NDP MLA for for the constituency from 2007 to 2016.

Adams said the NDP likely could have won Kirkfield Park on Tuesday if it enlisted a more familiar name for the task.

While Oxenham would enjoy better name recognition in a 2023 rematch, Adams added, a former Pallister strategist questioned why Kinew is already doubling down on the candidate for 2023.

"Curious why he would 'renominate' a failed candidate when it is clear that his Liberal opponent had a stronger one than usual and very likely cost NDP the seat," David McLaughlin said on Twitter.

That strong Liberal candidate is Rhonda Nichol, a clinical trials and research nurse at Cancer Care Manitoba, who finished a respectable third on Tuesday.

Can Liberals protect and compete?

The Liberals made Kirkfield Park a legitimate three-way race with the NDP and Tories, mere months after Liberal Willard Reaves made Fort Whyte a two-way squeaker.

Byelections, however, tend to be kind to the Liberals, who lack the resources of the other two parties but can focus them when only one constituency is at play.

The Liberals will be hard-pressed to compete in Kirkfield Park and Fort Whyte in 2023 while they also protect the three seats they hold — never mind challenge in new ones.

In retrospect, the party may come to regret the close-but-no-cigar showings in Winnipeg.

"I think they did miss an opportunity. But at the same time, they did show that they have teeth," Adams said.

What this all boils down to is another underperformance on Tuesday by all three Manitoba parties that hold seats in the legislature. The Tories lumbered to victory, the NDP appeared allergic to aggression and the Liberals took yet another opportunity to miss an opportunity.

Chances are at least one of these parties will see their fortunes improve next year.