Southwestern Ontario farmers at risk if U.S. tariffs materialize, experts say

Some in southwestern Ontario's agri-food sector say they're increasingly concerned over the looming threat of wide-reaching tariffs imposed by American President Donald Trump.

They say tens of thousands of jobs could be at risk in the southwest alone, especially for greenhouse growers, adding that tariffs would cause a massive disruption in food security, and notable price increases on both sides of the border.

Richard Lee, executive director of the Ontario Greenhouse Vegetable Growers, believes the situation could especially impact his corner of the agricultural sector, where 90 per cent of produce is exported.

"The gravity of the situation is extreme," he said. "We're hoping they see beyond these tariffs and recognize the need for food and food security."

The U.S. president said Monday that 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian goods could take effect as soon as Feb. 1, which is the latest development in weeks of threats brought against our country by its southern neighbour. In the weeks leading up to Trump's inauguration, he said he would be willing to use economic force to annex Canada, and has asserted multiple times that the U.S. doesn't need Canadian resources.

However, according to Lee, the numbers paint a picture that doesn't align with Trump's statements.

Canada exports more than $40 billion in agricultural products to the U.S. annually, Lee said, and the U.S. exports more than $30 billion into Canada, which puts the Americans in a trade deficit.

"How will they displace the agricultural products, much less the produce, that we ship over to the U.S.?" Lee said.

"You're going to have grocery store stores with empty shelves. If he targets those tariffs at Mexico, their trade deficit is almost a $100 billion difference. Significant changes will be needed in how they intend to feed Americans and fill those grocery stores."

Here at home, a 25 per cent tariff would add an additional $475-million to the cost of produce and affordability to the end consumer, Lee said. 

"If you look at the full value chain, which is interdependent upon suppliers, the greenhouse sector offers approximately 35,000 jobs," he said, including both domestic labour and international agricultural workers from packaging to brokerage firms, marketing and more. 

If the tariffs were to continue for an extended period of time, that would put about 29,000 greenhouse jobs in jeopardy, the majority in southwestern Ontario, he added.

Meanwhile, other farming jobs would be at risk too, especially through the erosion of the bottom line of many farmers, Drew Spoelstra, president of the Ontario Federation of Agriculture.  

About 60 per cent of Canadian produce, and 90 per cent of greenhouse-grown produce, is exported, so a drop in exports would be disastrous, he said. 

"That's when we make our money. When we sell our products at the end of the day," Spoelstra said.

However, it's not just a prospect of not being able to sell product that's concerning, he added.

"A lot of our critical inputs come from United States, whether that's livestock feed, veterinary products, farm machinery, fertilizer. If we're putting up retaliatory tariffs then certainly we're going to see an increased cost of production here."

According to Lee, a slowdown in trade could also result in massive food waste on our side of the border.

"It's not like it's an auto factory where we can just shut the plant down. These plants are growing and they need to be harvested when they become ripe, so we will choke up on product pretty quickly."

As governments on both sides of the border negotiate and discuss the issue, both farmers said they hope the voices and concerns of people in their sector will be heard.

"We want to make sure we're at the table. We want to have those conversations to ensure that agriculture goods flowing both directions can continue," Spoelstra said.

Moving forward, many farmers will be doing their best to prepare for the unknown, Spoelstra said.