Business leaders, farmers in Ontario say next PM needs to act quickly amid Trump threats

Associations representing farmers and businesses in Ontario say Canada's next leader needs to act quickly and prioritize Canada's economy in the face of potentially catastrophic tariffs threatened by U.S. president-elect Donald Trump. 

Reflecting on nearly a decade of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's tenure, they say his policies have brought both boons and challenges to their sectors, adding that agricultural and business growth needs to be top of mind, regardless of who takes over the reign.

"We definitely need experienced hands for the economy and for businesses," said Graham Henderson of London, Ont.'s Chamber of Commerce, which represents 950 businesses. 

On Monday, Trudeau announced he was proroguing Parliament until March 24 and will step down once the Liberal Party chooses his successor. Trump was quick to respond, reiterating an idea he floated earlier, that Canada become the 51st U.S. state. On Tuesday, Trump said he would consider using "economic force" to join the countries together. 

While some observers believe it's all part of Trump's negotiating strategy, Trudeau immediately dismissed his latest remarks, saying "there isn't a snowball's chance in hell" Canada would become a part of the U.S.

Opposition and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre responded too, saying in a statement, "Canada will never be the 51st state. Period." NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh wrote on X, formerly Twitter, "No Canadian wants to join you. ... Your attacks will hurt jobs on both sides of the border."

Henderson said Trump's threats of imposing 25 per cent tariffs on all imports from Canada need to be handled cautiously and carefully, with divisive rhetoric dialled back. 

Pausing Canadian legislative activity at a critical time, when Trump is about to take office for a second term on Jan. 20, creates uncertainty for farmers as various bills are now off the table, said Drew Spoelstra, president of the Ontario Federation of Agriculture (OFA).

"I think everybody's just trying to get a handle on what the next steps are, and really trying to understand what happens during prorogation and how the government will move forward," said Hamilton-based Spoelstra, whose federation represents 38,000 farmers across Ontario. 

"Obviously there's still work to be done. We've got a lot of challenges we're facing right now with the U.S. administration coming in and the potential for tariffs, trade issues and other things we continue to face here like cost of living, higher input prices and capital gains concerns."

One bill Spoelstra said is impacted by Parliament's prorogation is C-282, which is intended to protect Canada's supply management policy and future trade negotiations. He said Trump's tariffs would have a significant impact on the agriculture sector. 

"Certainly there's a lot of cross-border trade between our two nations, and both our trading partners in the U.S and us here as farm businesses in Canada will be hit pretty hard on both sides of the border," he said.

Mixed bag of praise, critique for Trudeau's policies

The Ontario industry leaders said policies implemented by Trudeau's government over the years have been both helpful and harmful at times. 

Henderson believes Trudeau negotiated a "reasonable update" to the free trade agreement between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, which he said provides an enormous amount of certainty in the marketplace.

"I think when we reflect back, it's 10 years and a lot can be forgotten. [Trudeau] had to pilot through four years of a Donald Trump presidency, which he accomplished with Canada largely unscathed."

Although Henderson praised the government's quick response in supporting local businesses during the COVID-19 pandemic, he said persistent lockdowns and asking small businesses to repay their pandemic loans amid high inflation caused damage. 

"We give them marks for responding quickly and saying, 'The problem needs money and we're here to help', but we deduct an enormous number of marks for not doing it thoughtfully, and then we deduct more marks for the fumble-handed manner in which they decided to collect the debt from small businesses."

Crosby Devitt, head of Grain Farmers of Ontario, said the carbon tax and increasing costs of production have made it hard for local farmers to stay internationally competitive.

"Most of our farming is only within a few hours of the U.S. border and those farmers are farming in a different environment where they don't have to pay a carbon tax on their energy use so they can, in some cases, produce grains at a lower cost to production," he said.

"We try to make up for that with high-quality producers, but at some point you have to be able to manage your costs, so that's a change we're looking to see regardless of who's the leader or who's in government."

His concerns about the carbon tax are echoed by OFA's Spoelstra, who said capital gains inclusion rates are forcing farmers to pay more money out of pocket.

Spoelstra said some of the Trudeau government's beneficial measures include changes made to Canada's business risk management program, which increased the advance payment programs and interest-free loan limits to help farmers recover post-pandemic. He's also appreciative of recent legislation, like Bill C-280, around financial protections for produce sellers.

All three industry leaders say they hope the next prime minister continues to fight for businesses across the country and building relationships with American governors to help strengthen the bond between both countries.