These Hamilton ridings are ones to watch, political experts say in final days of campaign

• Read all of CBC Hamilton's coverage of the federal election here.

With many Hamilton-area federal ridings held by Liberal members of Parliament going into this election, the bump the party has seen in the polls this month means the local electoral map may not change drastically, say local political scientists.

On election day this Monday, political experts say they'll be watching for the results especially in two local ridings held by other parties to see just how much pull the Liberal message has in this election.

Stefan Dolgert, an associate professor of political science at Brock University, sees the rise of Liberal support and the shrinking of support for the New Democratic Party as two sides of the same coin.

Dolgert, who lives in Hamilton, notes Conservative support nationally is still relatively strong, at about 38 per cent, which in normal times would be enough to form government. Those numbers are according to both the CBC poll tracker and the 338Canada project, an election projection model based on opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data.

But these days, existential fears related to tense relations with the United States have reduced NDP voters' feelings of "basic security" and have likely driven many to the more middle-of-the-road Liberals, he says.

Watching Hamilton Centre 

That makes Liberal victories more likely in the Hamilton ridings the party already holds — Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek — but may also have candidates such as Hamilton-Centre NDP MP Matthew Green looking over his shoulder, Dolgert says.

"I've been surprised to see how much support there is for the Liberal candidate [in Hamilton Centre]," said Dolgert, noting Green has been in the MP job since 2019 and was a city councillor before that. 

"I would still be surprised if [the NDP loses] Hamilton Centre but it does seem possible" in a way that was unfathomable even a few months ago, he told CBC Hamilton on Thursday.

WATCH | What the CBC Poll Tracker tells us in final days of campaign: 

Where do parties stand in the final days of the campaign?

1 day ago

Duration 6:51

As the federal election campaign enters its final days, the CBC Poll Tracker has the Liberals in a narrow lead over the Conservatives, with the NDP trailing at 8.6%. Poll watcher Éric Grenier of TheWrit.ca stops by Power & Politics to look at each party’s position in the eleventh hour of the election.

Chris Erl, a politics researcher at Toronto Metropolitan University, says the Liberal support in Hamilton Centre is notable given that the party is running a candidate who lives in Mississauga and works in Toronto, engineer Aslam Rana. 

"For the first time in decades, they are competitive in Hamilton Centre," says Erl, who also lives in Hamilton. "A lot of people who [would consider voting Liberal] are struggling with voting for someone who doesn't have a strong connection to the community."

He says many expected the Liberals to run a star local candidate, noting he heard residents musing about whether it might be former mayoral candidate Keanin Loomis or recent provincial Liberal candidate Deirdre Pike.

"This time, the Liberals might be kicking themselves over their choice," he said.

Will Conservatives hang onto Flamborough-Glanbrook?

The other local riding without a Liberal incumbent is Flamborough-Glanbrook, currently held by Conservative Dan Muys, who is running again.

The riding has gone Conservative since it was created in 2015, but if there were an election where the Liberals could be a factor there, it's this one, says Erl.

Given the rural population, "it should be a deep-blue Tory seat," but the riding also encompasses several increasingly populous towns, such as Waterdown and Binbrook.

"Muys is working hard" to keep his seat, says Erl, but "a lot of folks in the more suburban areas of the riding may look to the Liberals."

Greens inactive in several local ridings

When looking back at the provincial election, Erl says it's also notable how little traction the Green Party appears to have this time around.

While that may also be a function of the anxiety driving more people to the Liberals, it comes after a period of dysfunction in the federal party, where infighting over opinions related to Israel and the Palestinian territories led to a public rift.

After the start of this campaign, the Greens withdrew numerous candidates it had previously announced. It is not running a candidate in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, a riding in which Green candidate Pascale Marchand increased the provincial party's vote share in the recent Ontario election, notes Erl. 

"For the party federally to not be able to put a candidate there, it shows a disconnect," he says.

The Greens are also not running a candidate on the Hamilton Mountain. Meanwhile, when explaining her absence at the Cable 14 candidates debate earlier this week for the Flamborough-Glanbrook riding, Green candidate Anita Payne said she was not actively campaigning.

"Some of our candidates run small campaigns, giving voters the opportunity to vote for the Greens, but have no media communication strategy. Anita Payne is one of them," wrote party representative Fabrice Lachance in an email. 

New normal or a 'bump in the road'

Dolgert says he's heard pundits question whether the events of the current election mean Canada is headed toward becoming a two-party system, more like that of the United States.

But he cautions that it takes more than one election to show a trend.

"It will take a few elections to see if this will be a new normal," he says. "Maybe it's just a bump in the road."