Greens fight for survival as federal polls predict worst results in recent history
Party hoping to grow beyond its 2 seats, but could lose them all
Polls suggest the Green Party is at risk of being wiped off Canada's electoral map on election night, but co-Leader Elizabeth May believes the numbers don't reflect the party's ground game.
May, who's running for a fifth term, said she's knocked on so many doors that only her left hand can continue.
"I now have a new workplace injury," said May, who's represented the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands on Vancouver Island for 14 years. "Never had this before, but I can't use my right hand for door-knocking anymore because my knuckles have gotten very sore."
Even with that new injury, her party is fighting for survival in a race dominated by the Liberals and Conservatives.
May is hopeful the Greens can not only hold their two seats in the House of Commons but grow. And she says she plans to stay on at the party's helm after election day.
"I'm full of energy," May said. "I'm having fun, and if that means anything, I guess that means I'm still smiling going into Monday."
That hopeful picture doesn't match the bleak outcome poll analysts are forecasting.
CBC's Poll Tracker shows the Greens hovering at two per cent support – the worst level the party has seen in recent history.
"It's been very, very tough for the Greens," said Éric Grenier, who runs the tracker and TheWrit.ca. "The party should be prepared for what could be a more disappointing result than last time."
Grenier said the chances of co-Leader Jonathan Pedneault winning the Montreal riding of Outremont are slim. And while Green incumbents have proven hard to defeat, Grenier said both May and Ontario Green MP Mike Morrice are not in safe seats.
Elizabeth May facing 'race of her life'
May is in a three-way battle with the Conservatives and Liberals to keep a riding that she previously won handily.
"Elizabeth is facing the race of her life," said B.C. political scientist Michael Prince, the acting dean of the human and social development department at the University of Victoria.
"She's vulnerable and I think there's a sense, perhaps, of people that are looking for a change."
Heading into this election, the Green Party underwent a big makeover, announcing co-leaders, new messaging and even a new logo.
But the party is struggling to break through, with voters seized by affordability issues, threats to Canada's sovereignty and the trade war triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump.
"It's a very unusual election," May said. "But the climate crisis is still on people's minds, even if pollsters say Canadians don't care. I hear it every single day how much people are very concerned."
Climate is still a concern for about 70 per cent of Canadians, according to Eddie Sheppard, president of insights at Abacus Data.
But the Green Party is losing the momentum it gained in the 2010s when May unseated a Conservative cabinet minister to become the first elected Green MP.
"Since the rebranding, there's been no evidence that it's had any impact at all," Sheppard said.
Canada's Green Party isn't the only one facing challenges. Sheppard said Green parties around the world are struggling because they're perceived as one-issue parties tied to offering long-term climate solutions instead of providing immediate relief to the kitchen-table issues voters are grappling with.
"We have witnessed a significant shift in focus in Canada, as well as the world, around short-term issues," Sheppard said.
Debate ruling 'unhelpful,' says May
The Greens were hoping for a breakthrough at the federal leaders' debates.
But on the day Pedneault was supposed to take centre stage for the party, the Leaders' Debates Commission excluded him for failing to run candidates in 90 per cent of the country's 343 ridings.
It cited a discrepancy between the number of candidates the party submitted on April 1 with the number of confirmed candidates it registered with Elections Canada, which ended up including 232 names.
"It was massively unfair," May said. "It obviously is unhelpful, and not just to the Green Party. It's unhelpful to voters."
It was also a heavy blow to a party that lacks anywhere near the fundraising or organizing capacity of the other parties, and the Greens are now challenging the decision in Federal Court.
WATCH | Green Party co-Leader Jonathan Pedneault responds to Leaders' Debates Commission
Vote seems to be shifting to Liberals
The Green Party is also trying to leave a tumultuous era behind it. Under former leader Annamie Paul, party infighting spilled over into public before and during the 2021 election. The party saw a considerable drop in its vote share, sitting at 2.33 per cent.
The Green vote appears to be shifting toward the Liberals. In a recent poll, Abacus found 32 per cent of Canadians surveyed said the Greens are best able to handle climate, while 29 per cent said the Liberals, who made the environment a central priority under former prime minister Justin Trudeau.
"They're at risk of really falling in the background of the political conversation in Canada, and I think that that would be a huge detriment to the country because of how important climate is to so many Canadians," Sheppard said.
"Having a party that really advocates and pushes for climate action and resilience is something that the country needs."
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