No-snow November: El Niño could mean a warm and dry winter for Edmonton

This story is part of the Prairies Climate Change Project, a joint initiative between CBC Edmonton and CBC Saskatchewan that focuses on weather and our changing climate.

Usually, at this time of year, Edmonton is blanketed in snow — well ahead of the official start of winter.

But this year, November has seen unseasonably warm temperatures and no snow. 

The lack of snow in November — while unusual — is not unheard of.

"Edmonton city, it has happened in the past, we've had three cases of it, but they've all been so far in the past, like we're talking like over 90 years. So the last time when that happened was in 1928," said Rachel Modestino, meteorologist with the Weather Network. 

This is the first year that no snow has been marked at the weather station at the Edmonton International Airport, which has been in operation since 1960. 

"When we look at the Edmonton airport, there hasn't been any case where November has been snowless, so we're talking about zero centimetres of snow," said Modestino, who says the airport station typically sees about 17 cm of snow in November alone. 

In recent history, Edmonton has had a few years that came very close to having no snow. 

"I've looked back 20 years … [and] if we go back to 2008 and 2007, we had one centimetre both those years," said Alysa Pederson, warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada. 

What makes this year so unusual is that Edmonton is experiencing an El Niño weather pattern. 

El Niño is associated with the warming of the Pacific Ocean, which warms the atmosphere above it, and can lead to unusual weather patterns across the globe. 

"What that does is it changes how the jet stream flows over Western Canada … El Niño winters are a little bit warmer than what we would say is normal for winter, and drier, so this is not too much of a surprise," said Pederson. 

El Niño should peak in December, said Pederson. 

"Our longer range models are indicating that we should be expecting a warmer than normal winter and with that, likely drier than we've seen," said Pederson. 

During the last El Niño in 2015 and 2016, there were warmer winter temperatures across the country, especially in the Prairies. 

In Edmonton, that meant a late arrival of snow. 

"We didn't have any snow that year at all until November 24th and then we got six centimetres, so it's kind of an interesting thing to compare to a … year where the climate is structured similarly," said Pederson. 

'Never lost a crop in November'

The lack of snow might be worrisome for people who love winter sports, but for farmers, the lack of precipitation is not yet a worry. 

"We've never lost a crop in November, but it remains to be seen how dry and how warm the El Niño effect will be on the next growing season," said Karla Bergstrom, executive director with Alberta Canola.

"According to some of my producers, [drought is] noticeable on the landscape, we've seen surface water levels declining ... and low spots are drying up." 

Bergstrom says if the snow doesn't return in the coming months, that's when next year's crops will be at risk. 

"We really do need that above-average snowfall to rebuild those healthy snowpacks and replenish the surface water going into the spring." 

Snow is likely coming 

Even though it's uncommon for Edmonton to see no snow in the month of November, Pederson says the month is typically not the snowiest for the city. 

The average snowfall in November for the city of Edmonton is about 10 to 15 cm, with the largest average snowfall falling months later. 

"January [and] February are kind of our cooler months where we don't really get too much snow, and then spring is actually when we get the most snow in the Edmonton area," said Pederson. 

In the short term, Pederson says that Edmonton will continue to have normal or above normal temperatures over the next couple of weeks, with no sign of snow. 

She says that it's hard to say if these conditions will be more common on the prairies in the years to come. 

"We went from three years of being La Niña  to all of a sudden being El Niño… we could easily flip into La Niña  in the next couple of years again potentially, and that is the opposite, it's cooler and wetter [than] usual."