1 in 4 eligible voters in Alberta cast ballot at advance polling stations, data shows

One in four voters in Alberta went to the polls ahead of federal election day, and a Calgary riding saw one of the highest turnouts in the country, Elections Canada data shows.

More than 815,000 Albertans cast their ballot at advance polling stations last weekend, about 169,000 more people than in the last federal election in 2021, according to preliminary counts from Elections Canada, the independent agency that conducts the federal-level votes, released this week.

But the reason behind the increase — and whether it foreshadows a higher voter turnout overall this election — is still unclear.

"There does seem to be a trend among Canadians toward voting in advance, which does make it different to read the tea leaves right now," said Michael Wigginton, a political science postdoctoral fellow at Carleton University in Ottawa.

"It's very hard to say, when looking at the advance voter numbers, if they're reflective of election day turnout, or if they're just reflective of people wanting to vote as early as possible."

Only certain voters were allowed to cast advance ballots from 1920 to 1993, but now advance polls are open to all eligible voters, according to Elections Canada's website. An agency spokesperson told CBC News that the turnouts at advance polls have increased each election.

Noting that trend, the agency increased the number of voting tables and workers at advance polls for this election, the spokesperson said.

More people may have showed up to advance polling stations this election because they were open throughout Easter weekend, the spokesperson said.

But they noted that timing was a coincidence: the Canada Elections Act states that advance polling stations must only be open from Friday to Monday, on the second-last weekend before election day.

Calgary Crowfoot saw 4th-most advance voters in Canada

Elections Canada reported nearly 7.3 million advanced voters this writ period — a new record.

Data shows more than 33,700 of those voters were from the Calgary Crowfoot riding, in the city's northwest. That electoral district saw the highest turnout in Alberta, and fourth-highest across Canada's 343 ridings.

The St. Albert-Sturgeon River and Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan ridings were also among the 19 ridings across the country that each reported more than 30,000 voters at their advance polling stations, data shows.

The Lakeland riding, meanwhile, had one of the country's lowest advance turnouts, ahead of only the Northwest Territories, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Labrador and Nunavut constituencies.

Within Alberta, the southern parts of the province — particularly in Calgary — saw higher turnouts. Ridings in more urban areas tended to see more advance voters too, which Wigginton called counterintuitive.

People in rural Alberta might live further from their polling station, making it less accessible and harder to stop by on voting day, he said.

Federal electoral district boundaries were redrawn in 2023 to adjust for the country's population growth, so it's not possible to accurately compare turnouts in each riding to those of the previous election.

Competitive race a factor?

In past elections, Wigginton noted, advance voter turnout has not always led to higher voter turnout overall. Data shows that fewer Canadians voted in 2021 than in 2019, for example. 

As of Friday morning, the CBC poll tracker suggested the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives by less than four per cent. The NDP is trying to maintain official party status.

People may be inspired to get their ballot in when there is a tight race, Wigginton said.

"Voters, generally, have a sense of how competitive they're riding is. So from a pure rational-choice perspective, they realize, 'Oh, my vote actually might be more decisive than usual this election. I should really turn out and vote'," he said.

Monday is election day and polls are open 7:30 a.m.–7:30 p.m.