Pierre Poilievre draws thousands to rally north of Nanaimo
Conservatives have potential to take numerous seats from NDP on Vancouver Island, analyst says
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre set his sights on B.C.'s Vancouver Island in the final days of the election campaign, speaking to thousands of people who packed into a farm outbuilding near Nanaimo Friday night.
"Vancouver Island, I have a question, Who's voting for change?" Poilievre asked the crowd, to cheers and a chant of "We want change."
The lineup to get into the rally snaked around the large farm building, and cars were backed up all the way to Island Highway's Nanoose Bay on-ramp, just north of Nanaimo.
Brett Clancy, who lives in the Cowichan-Malahat riding, says the rally embodied the "blue wave" washing over the Island, where the Conservatives are trying to turn NDP seats blue.
"This is the biggest rally on Vancouver Island in the history of political rallies"
This is Poilievre's second visit to Nanaimo and fourth trip to B.C. since the campaign began.
"We haven't seen that kind of attention by a Conservative leader on the Island in decades," says Michael Prince, the University of Victoria's dean of human and social development and a veteran political scientist.
NDP stronghold under threat
"[Poilievre is] looking at taking two, three, maybe four seats from the NDP on the Island," Prince said
The NDP currently holds six of the seven ridings on Vancouver Island, while the Greens hold one.
Current polls show every riding on the Island is a battleground, with the potential for nearly every seat to change hands.
Clancy says the NDP have "abandoned the working class," which is why the Conservatives are staking out this territory.
Nanaimo Mayor Leonard Krog says the Conservatives have been paying close attention to his city, as well as the Alberni Valley and North Island.
"They believe they have a good chance here. I think the polling generally confirms it."
Poilievre's presence in the Nanaimo-Ladysmith riding could give a boost to the party's candidate, Tamara Kronis, in what is shaping up to be a tight four-way race.
Candidates make their case
Kronis is currently in the lead, according to polling aggregator 338 Canada.
She introduced Poilievre at the rally, telling the crowd the biggest message she's hearing at the doorstep is that voters are upset after 10 years of a Liberal government and want change.
"After the lost NDP-Liberal decade where cost and crime are up, and where our economy is down and under the Americans' thumb, does anyone here really believe that the Liberals deserve a fourth term?" she asked.
In close second is former Green MP Paul Manly, who is currently a Nanaimo city councillor.
Manly says people he's talking to are scared of the cuts to core services a Conservative government would implement.
Asked about whether the U.S. tariffs have dominated the campaign, largely making it a two-horse race between the Liberals and Conservatives, Manly says he has experience assisting with the negotiations on the trade deal between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico in 2019 after he was elected an MP for the Greens.
"The progressive voters that don't want to be represented by a Poilievre-Conservative government should back me up," Manly said.
Liberal candidate Michelle Corfield dismissed polling numbers that put her behind Kronis and Manly, saying she's confident she has a chance to win the seat.
She says websites that encourage strategic voting to deny the Conservatives the seat are a "threat to democracy."
"I'm not worried. I think Canadians are going to step into that ballot box and vote with their values," she said.
Corfield, a First Nations leader and entrepreneur, calls Nanaimo "the most important riding on Vancouver Island."
That's because of its strategic port, military presence and the importance of the forestry industry for the Island, she says.
NDP incumbent Lisa Marie Barron says she proved the polls wrong in 2021 and she believes she can do it again.
"What's clear to me, the more people get to know Poilievre, the more worried they are," she said. "People are afraid of Poilievre coming in, the cuts we know he'll be making, and attacking the public health-care system."
All four leading candidates are the same ones who faced off during the 2021 election.
"They are all candidates qualified to be Members of Parliament. That isn't always the case in an election," says Krog, a former NDP MLA.
In the last election, Barron narrowly won with 28 per cent of the vote over Kronis, who took 27 per cent for the Conservatives. Manly was right at their heels with 25 per cent of the vote, followed by Corfield with 14 per cent.
"It was a very tight race here last time, as tight as you can be with the three-way split at the top," Krog said. "This time, who knows?"
Homelessness a key issue for some
Krog says street disorder, addiction, mental health and crime are top of mind for many voters.
Poilievre has promised to be tougher on drug dealers with life sentences for fentanyl traffickers.
He also pledged to change the criminal code to give police more power to remove homeless encampments.
Manly says he knows "people are frustrated with street disorder" but "criminalizing homeless people who came out together because they need safety in numbers, that's not the way to deal with this."
Corfield says we can't "arrest our way" out of homelessness. She says homelessness isn't just about housing, but is about a "system that's failed people" through a lack of wraparound services.
Baron, who worked in mental health and addictions before becoming an MP, says Poilievre's plan to deal with homelessness is a "Band-Aid solution to complex issues."
She says the NDP's housing platform would provide affordable housing, access to treatment and wraparound supports to address homelessness.
To close the rally and to underscore his point about crime, Poilievre shared a story of a previous visit to Nanaimo where the business owner who was supposed to introduce him was attacked in a robbery.
"This is one of the most beautiful places in the world. You should not have to live this way."
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