Uncertainty blankets Metro Vancouver as Liberals gain traction in historically NDP, Conservative ridings

This is part of a series of regional features focusing on issues and ridings in B.C. that could prove critical to the outcome of the federal election on April 28.

Just days before the 2025 federal election, the potential outcome in several Metro Vancouver ridings is unclear, even in those that are often considered sure things for all of the three main parties.

A couple of weeks ago, the polls were showing the potential that the Liberals may win every seat in the Metro Vancouver area. As of April 24, the region's leaning weren't quite as clear; 338Canada.com data showed a toss up in several ridings. 

"The Liberals are doing a lot better than they had in the last few elections, the NDP doing a bit worse, Conservatives more or less on track with where they were in the past," said Éric Grenier, a poll analyst and writer with The Writ, and who is running the CBC Poll Tracker. 

"It raises the question of how many of those seats are going to flip."

Conservative incumbents in ridings like South Surrey-White Rock and Abbotsford-South Langley are facing tough competition from Liberal candidates, polls show. 

Meanwhile, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh could actually lose his seat in Burnaby Central, which polling website 338Canada.com has consistently shown as Liberal leaning during the campaign. 

Singh himself didn't necessarily seem steadfast in his ability to win the riding; when reporters asked him about his chances two weeks ago, Singh initially dodged the question. It took a reporter asking again for him to say "I'm confident that I'll be able to serve the people of Burnaby Central." 

Even Vancouver East, where the NDP's Jenny Kwan has held the MP seat for nearly 10 years, and her predecessor Libby Davies, also of the NDP and who held it for eight years, isn't safe for the New Democrats this time around; on Thursday morning, 338 suggested the Liberals had an equal shot at winning the seat. 

Political scientist Stewart Prest said it's notable that the Liberals would even have a shot in that riding.

"If there's a safe seat for the NDP in the country, we would think it would be Vancouver East," he said.

"It is an unusual election." 

Toss up

For the purpose of this story, CBC News looked at 23 ridings in the Metro Vancouver area, as shown below. 

As of Thursday, 10 of those ridings, situated throughout the region, were considered a "toss up" by 338Canada.com — that is, the numbers weren't strong enough to determine one clear winner in those areas. 

"The Liberals, at one point during the campaign were really far ahead," Grenier said. "Their lead was starting to get into the five, six, seven-point range in B.C. Now it's more in a three or four-point range."

Still a decent lead, but as Prest pointed out, a lot can change in just one day during an election campaign, especially when Canada's closest neighbour is threatening the country's sovereignty, placing tariffs on Canadian goods and making decisions that constantly impact the global market. 

If U.S. President Donald Trump remains the biggest problem, Prest said, the Liberals will likely continue to see success in Metro Vancouver and elsewhere. 

"But if that starts to erode or if there are new critiques of of Mr. [Mark] Carney and whether he is really listening to Canadians … then we might see that [support for the Liberals] eroded."

Ross Michael Pink, a political science instructor at Kwantlen Polytechnic University, said that while the polls may be showing some degree of uncertainty, the Greater Vancouver Area has historically voted "Liberal left."

"I think it's somewhat predictable," he said, referring to the region showing more support for the federal Liberal Party. 

Strategic voting

In every election, Prest said, there's an element of strategic voting — some people don't necessarily vote for the party they're most aligned with, but one that will knock down a party that they really don't want in power. 

"This is strategic voting on steroids," Prest said of what polls are showing this year. 

He said this happened in 2015, when Canadians who had grown tired of then-prime minister Stephen Harper were choosing between the Liberal Party's Justin Trudeau and former NDP leader Tom Mulcair.

"We're seeing that, but even more magnified, where the vote for the NDP really is collapsing at this point, some polls having them in single digits," Prest said.

"This is clearly a phenomenon of strategic voting driven by Mr. Trump and effectively his ability, his superpower really, to make everything about him and the election here in Canada is a part of that."

It's all about strategy for the parties, too — Grenier said that's what Carney's trip to B.C.'s South Coast this week was all about. With all these toss ups, the party is looking to solidify their chances in the region. 

"They're playing a little bit of offence and defence, trying to go after some of those NDP seats and also trying to shore up their seats south of the Fraser River," he said.

Vancouver could determine minority, majority: Grenier

Federal elections can be frustrating for western provinces whose voters may still be standing in line at the polls while ballots are being counted out east — and the election is called before they get home. 

But Grenier said current polls suggest B.C. could play an important role in the outcome of this election. 

"If we do see in the coming days that the margins continue to get a little bit tighter between the Liberals and the Conservatives, we could be in a place where the extra 10 seats that the Liberals might be able to pick up in B.C. could make the difference," he said. 

No matter who Metro Vancouver voters are supporting, Pink implores people to vote. 

"There are ridings historically in Canada and America and other countries that have been decided by less than 10 votes, so it's very important," he said. 

"Your vote matters. Everybody matters."