Improved Liberal fortunes in B.C. under Carney come at the expense of the federal NDP, polls show
3 polls this week show a Liberal surge stealing support from the federal NDP
With many expecting Prime Minister Mark Carney to call a federal election soon, new polling shows the federal Liberals gaining ground on Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.
Some of that surge is coming at the expense of Jagmeet Singh's NDP — particularly in British Columbia, where the New Democrats have 12 of their 24 seats.
Three polls this week — from the Angus Reid Institute, Ipsos and Liaison Strategies — show the ruling party surging nationally to lead its Conservative rival by less than a percentage point.
In B.C., CBC's poll tracker, which averages polls that have come out this month, shows Liberal support at 36 per cent, the Conservatives at 41 per cent, with NDP support sitting at 14 per cent.
That's a major swing from December when the NDP enjoyed 28 per cent support in B.C. and the Liberals under Justin Trudeau had just 16 per cent.
"What you've seen is a coalescing of the left-of-centre vote," said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, the polling firm that released one of the polls. "The untold story here is that the NDP is in absolute critical condition, on life support."
The projections mean the New Democrats are at risk of losing official party status, and Singh faces an uphill battle to hang onto his seat in Burnaby South.
In Nanaimo, typically an NDP stronghold in provincial and federal elections, some say voters are likely to vote strategically rather than backing a party they've voted for in the past.
"Behind the scenes, I think the federal NDP has done some good work, but it seems like their messaging and their branding hasn't been on point," says Farrell Gilmore, a Nanaimo resident.
"They haven't been able to take credit for some of the wins they've been doing in the coalition with the Liberals," Gilmore said.
Another Nanaimo resident, Robin Austin, says she's voted Green in the past few elections, but this time, she will support the Liberals. She believes Carney is the right person to stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump, who has slapped tariffs on Canadian goods and repeatedly threatened to annex Canada.
The NDP's campaign spokesperson, Anne McGrath, says she's worked on dozens of NDP campaigns federally and provincially and has seen the party rebound from sagging polling numbers before.
McGrath says once the campaign gets underway, she's confident Singh will show himself as the only leader who is standing up for everyday Canadians.
Concerns around vote splitting on the left come up during every election, McGrath says, adding it's a scare tactic used by other parties to drive voters away from where their values lie.
"The idea that voting for the party you believe in is a wasted vote is actually voter suppression," she said.
Mark Marissen, a Liberal strategist and principal of Burrard Strategy, says it's clear Carney's leadership has injected optimism into the party.
"This is the perfect time for the Liberal Party to be calling an election. But you can't count your chickens before they hatch. There could be a lot of movement during an election campaign."
Marissen says Poilievre was gearing up for an election centred around the carbon tax and Justin Trudeau.
"He doesn't have either of those issues anymore."
Rachael Segal, a Conservative strategist who worked in the government of Stephen Harper, says Carney is enjoying a brief honeymoon period.
But she's confident Poilievre's political experience gives him the edge over Carney, who has never held public office.
"Pierre Poilievre, being his opponent — someone who has been in the House of Commons over successive Parliaments, someone who started at a very young age — he is a master communicator. He is a master campaigner."
Trump has injected himself into the campaign before it's officially started, telling Fox News: "The Conservative that's running is stupidly no friend of mine. I don't know him, but he said negative things. I think it's easier to deal actually with a Liberal, and maybe they're going to win, but I don't really care. It doesn't matter to me at all."
Regardless of what Trump thinks of the party leaders, the threat of tariffs and ongoing threats to annex Canada means he will be a central character throughout the election campaign.
A date has not yet been set for the federal election, but many are expecting Carney to call one before Parliament reconvenes on March 24.
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