Putin has more to gain by not showing up to ceasefire talks, Russia watchers say
Russian president refused a 30-day pause in fighting with Ukraine, suggested direct talks in Istanbul instead
When Ukraine's president arrives in Turkey, Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with the country's leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but a key part of the trip is to send the message that he is ready for face-to-face talks with Vladimir Putin, even if the Russian president isn't.
On Thursday, Turkey will host the first direct peace talks between Ukraine and Russia since 2022, a meeting Putin proposed on Saturday at the same time that he refused a 30-day ceasefire, despite an ultimatum from Europe that demanded Moscow agree or be saddled with new rounds of sanctions.
Instead, in an effort to look like he is ready to negotiate, Putin suggested restarting the failed peace talks that were held in Istanbul in late March of 2022 just as Russia was abandoning its unsuccessful attempt to push on Kyiv.
The response to Putin's proposal was swift and, for the Kremlin, perhaps surprising.
U.S. President Donald Trump proclaimed that the talks should go ahead even without a ceasefire, hinting that since he was en route to the Middle East, he might even drop by.
Zelenskyy vowed that he would come to Istanbul to meet with Putin directly, a clear attempt to goad the leader who rarely leaves Russia and only ever participates in carefully controlled events inside the country.
Russia says it will have a delegation in Istanbul, but the Kremlin's spokesperson says Putin hasn't officially named who is going — although there are reports the country's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, will be headed to Turkey.
Among Ukraine's allies, the expectation is that Putin will be a no-show.
"I think it's a good move if they sit down … but I don't think [Putin] dares," said Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign policy chief, during a summit in Copenhagen on Tuesday.
"Putin has shown very clearly that he still wants war," Kallas said.
Growing frustration
It has been more than two months since Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, and the U.S administration is growing increasingly impatient with Moscow's refusal to stop fighting and start negotiating — repeatedly threatening to pull out as a mediator if there isn't progress soon.
Last week U.S. Vice-President JD Vance said Russia was asking for "too much."
Trump said the talks in Istanbul could produce "good results," but if they don't and Washington views Russia as the holdout, they could further sour relations.
Dozens of U.S. senators are part of a bipartisan group currently working on legislation to unveil more sanctions targeting Russia if the peace talks flounder.
"The Russian president proposed [the talks] because he wants to drag this out, " said Hanna Shelest, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
"The ultimate goal is to not make Trump too pissed off with the Kremlin and start fully supporting Ukraine and increasing sanctions against Russia."
Shelest, who lives in Odesa, Ukraine, where she is also the director of security studies at the non-government foreign policy council "Ukrainian Prism," said it is crucial for the U.S. to be involved in the talks because, unlike Europe, Russia will talk to Washington.
Given that Russia consistently frames the war as a proxy battle with the west, she says U.S. officials need to be at the table.
And given the global security issues, she says so does Europe.
While Trump said he would attend the talks if it was "helpful," U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will be in Istanbul and, according to Reuters, so will U.S. special envoys Keith Kellogg and Steve Witkoff.
Witkoff has already made four trips to Moscow this year to meet Putin, who hasn't budged on any of his demands for Ukrainian territory and insists the country needs to remain neutral and have its military significantly weakened.
2022 negotiations
Four days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, delegations from Moscow and Kyiv met in Belarus for peace talks, according to an investigation by the New York Times, which published draft negotiation documents from the earlier days of the war.
After the meeting in Belarus, there were video calls and then, on March 29, both sides met in Istanbul. The documents revealed areas where Russia and Ukraine managed to negotiate agreements and also where they were still far apart.
While Kyiv's negotiators agreed to forgo NATO membership and accept the Russian occupation of parts of their territory, they refused to recognize Russian sovereignty over them.
There were also stark disagreements around the strength of Ukraine's military, along with what security guarantees Kyiv would have if it were to be attacked again.
Shelest, who has spoken with some of those involved in the negotiations back then, told CBC News that Ukraine is in a much stronger position now in negotiations.
Over the past three years, it has been able to retake some of the territory Russia seized in the early weeks of the war, and its military has been bolstered by western weapons and the rapid development of its own defence industry.
She says this new round of talks won't lead to much if Russia doesn't make any concessions, and is instead set on using the negotiations to get what it didn't win on the battlefield.
While Russia has rejected calls for a 30-day truce, Putin unilaterally declared a three-day ceasefire last week to coincide with the country's celebration of Victory Day, which marks the defeat of Nazi forces during the Second World War.
Both sides reported that fighting continued across the front line during that period.
During a meeting with business officials on Tuesday, Putin claimed that 50,000 to 60,000 volunteers are enlisting with the Russian army each month.
While he said the country needed to be prepared to face additional sanctions, he didn't mention the pending talks in Istanbul.
Turkey's balancing act
Turkey, which has been trying to balance its ties with both Russia and Ukraine, was credited for helping to secure the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022, which allowed for the safe passage of agricultural exports from Black Sea Ports until Russia refused to extend the deal in 2023.
While it has facilitated talks between both sides before, including those that led to prisoner swaps, Helin Sari Ertem, a political scientist at Istanbul Medeniyet University says she doesn't think Turkey has the influence to step in as mediator if the U.S. decides its had enough and bows out.
"Turkey is not in a position to apply pressure on Russia," said Sari Ertem in an interview with CBC News via Zoom.
"The United States can, Trump can, but Turkey cannot because it is a regional power."
But she says Turkey's position is unique. It's a member of NATO and has sent drones to Ukraine, but half of its natural gas imports come from Russia. It has joint investment projects with Moscow, including a larger nuclear power plant, which became operational this year in Turkey and was built by Rosatom, a Russian state corporation.
"Turkey can provide a safe place for these kinds of negotiations," Sari Ertem said.
"Trump is fed up with the war … and Europe cannot continue supporting Ukraine to the full extent. They all need someone to bring the sides together"
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