Exit poll shows close race in Irish election, reports national broadcaster

An Irish national election exit poll on Saturday showed the three main parties holding an almost identical share of the vote, according to national broadcaster RTE. 

The Ipsos MRBI exit poll showed Prime Minister Leo Varadkar's centre-right Fine Gael held 22.4 per cent;  left-wing nationalist Sinn Fein party had 22.3 per cent and the main opposition party — Fianna Fail — had 22.2 per cent.

Statistically the result is a dead heat, said RTE, which commissioned the poll.

Vote counting begins at 9 a.m. GMT (4 a.m. ET) on Sunday with some results expected in the afternoon.  

Sinn Fein, which has appealed to younger voters on the defining issue of the election — the cost and availability of housing — has put forward too few candidates to capitalize on a surge of support attracted during the campaign.

Analysts said ahead of the vote that would mean either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, which each ran twice as many candidates, would likely win the most seats.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have continuously ruled out governing with Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), and have said they will look to smaller parties to form a coalition or minority government.

Both would fall well short of a majority of seats on such a share of the vote.

Fianna Fail's policies on the economy and post-Brexit are broadly similar to those of Varadkar's centre-right Fine Gael.

"I think there is a bit of a backlash coming (against Varadkar) from chatting to friends and colleagues," said Shane Sullivan, a 31-year-old data analyst who voted for Fianna Fail because he wanted a focus on public spending rather than tax cuts. "I think they are just a bit out of touch to be honest."

Although both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael insist they will not govern with Sinn Fein, citing its IRA past and differing economic polices, such an outcome would demonstrate an appetite for change in decades-long centrist Ireland.

The IRA fought against British rule in Northern Ireland in a 30-year conflict in which some 3,600 people were killed before a 1998 peace deal. Sinn Fein's ultimate aim is to unify the Republic of Ireland and British-run Northern Ireland, where it shares power.

"I went for Sinn Fein this time because I really do believe it's time for change," said Siobhan Hogan, a 40-year-old childcare worker, who cited Fine Gael plans to increase the pension age and its failure to solve a housing crisis.

"I'm lucky enough to have my own place but I look around and I see people struggling. People need a roof over their heads."

Varadkar had hoped the economic upturn his party has overseen since 2011 and his own diplomatic successes on Brexit — helping prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland after Britain's departure from the EU — would extend his near three-year premiership.

The strategy appears to have fallen flat amid domestic issues such as healthcare and housing.