There are 3 steps Carney must take to get a truce from Trump
He’s meeting Trump quickly. Getting a deal? That’s a different matter
Canada's newly elected prime minister will soon meet with U.S. President Donald Trump. Reaching a deal with him? That's another matter.
Trump said Wednesday that Carney will visit the White House within about a week and that the PM wants to make a deal.
But Carney has three major steps to get through in order to arrive at the comprehensive trade and security pact he's seeking. They are the three Ps: personnel, process and policy.
Look to this meeting — expected in the "near future" according to the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) — for early clues on how those negotiations might work. Which people will lead it? What process will they follow? And what policies are on the table?
The ultimate goal, obviously, is a more functional relationship with the United States, including an easing of Trump's 25 per cent tariffs on steel, aluminum and certain other products.
One uniquely well-placed analyst says it was Carney's idea to package the tariff talk with the broader security conversation.
Brian Clow managed U.S. relations in Justin Trudeau's PMO and said that office had been dealing with one tariff threat after another.
Carney "has the opportunity to reset and restart the relationship here," said Clow, who is not involved in the present government, and was speaking as an observer.
"I'm choosing to be optimistic at this stage that we will get real results."
But first, there's Step 1, says Clow: assembling a team and deciding Canada's key point people — like who will hold the relevant cabinet roles, who will lead the process, and will there be a lead negotiator named?
One negotiation process? Or two?
Step 2 involves the process. What mechanism will these talks unfold under? There's a slow one: the scheduled review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) which is supposed to start next year.
But that process would take months just to get started. By law, the U.S. has to perform 270 days of consultation with the general public and Congress before starting talks with Canada and Mexico.
Another option is an informal arrangement — a handshake deal.
A third possibility is a combination of both — initial talks, followed by the formal process months later.
One senior Canadian official says it probably will involve two separate sets of talks, but that the specific process has yet to be nailed down.
A few trade-policy experts in Washington normally happy to talk about process admitted to being befuddled by this one when contacted by CBC News.
Trump's trade policy has been, to put it mildly, a touch more erratic than Washington is accustomed to, bypassing normal procedures.
One well-known Canadian predicts that the trade and security talks will not happen through the slower, more formal path.
"Not through CUSMA," said Erin O'Toole, the former federal Conservative leader and newly named fellow at a Washington-based think-tank, the Hudson Institute.
He says Trump just has too many talks already planned on tariffs, with too many countries, to envision talks with Canada happening through the regular, more deliberative process.
That brings us to the substance: What issues will be on the table?
It's obvious what Canada's top priority will be — the end of tariffs. Ideally, this would include new U.S. laws limiting how they're used, but that's a long shot under the best circumstances and would require Congress, meaning not in a quickie deal with the president.
The U.S., meanwhile, is quite transparent about a number of its demands. It even publishes an annual list. Its latest calls for changes to Canada's dairy system and digital-services tax.
Trump has also complained about Canada's military spending and banking regulations. Perhaps above all else, his team wants fewer foreign parts, generally, and specifically fewer Chinese parts, in auto supply chains.
Trump's first-term trade czar mentioned this at a recent forum in Ottawa. Autos are "the biggest thing," Robert Lighthizer said. "I hope we tighten it even more."
The way O'Toole sees it, Canada could tie this whole conversation together under one broad package: rebuilding the arsenal of democracy.
The U.S. fears that its depleted capacity to manufacture things has become a threat to national security, in everything from ships, to industrial parts, to weapons built with critical minerals.
O'Toole envisions a broad pact in which Canada aligns with U.S. objectives on autos, guarantees certain access to critical minerals including uranium, ramps up military co-operation in the Arctic, and delivers what sounds like a huge victory for Trump — a guaranteed supply of a certain volume of oil, at a discount price, for, say, 20 years.
Spoiler alert: Canada already sells this oil to the U.S. at a discount. But, O'Toole figures, it would look great in a press release.
"Let [Trump] say he's winning," O'Toole said. "Say, 'This deal's worth $40 billion over 20 years'.… In return, Canada wins because we align our integrated defence and… manufacturing."
All this is predicated on Trump easing tariffs, O'Toole says. Trump might not remove them all, he says, but even removing some, or reducing them to a more manageable rate, would help.
And it would set the tone for a more productive CUSMA process next year, he adds.
Perhaps the biggest challenge with these talks is rebuilding trust.
Even some American lawmakers have questioned why other countries would bother making a deal with the U.S., knowing the president might later impose tariffs on a whim.
After all, Canada had already done much of what the U.S. asked. It revised the old NAFTA. Then it slapped tariffs, restrictions and sanctions on various Chinese goods and investments in Canada.
Clow recalls that during Trudeau's phone call with Trump, after Trump was re-elected, Trudeau mentioned the tariffs Canada had imposed on China.
"The president appeared to be happy with that," Clow recalled.
And then, days later, he threatened tariffs on everything from Canada and Mexico. Soon thereafter, Trudeau visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Trump praised that meeting as "very productive," but immediately started talking about annexing Canada. Finally, he imposed the tariffs, but eased many of them.
So will these tariffs just keep lingering? Or is there any chance Trump might suspend some to build goodwill during negotiations?
Obviously, Canada will aim for the latter, Clow says. Carney's team will clearly argue for a swift removal as part of a relationship reset.
"But I would not be optimistic that that's going to happen right out of the gate," Clow said. "Then the goal would be to get them removed at the point of any deal."
And that, he concurred, could take a while.
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