No longer 'overshadowed': Why California could play central role in choosing the Democratic nominee
Moving up its primary to Super Tuesday gives the state a shot at increased relevance
In a small park at California State University, Bakersfield, a group of about 30 students, volunteers and activists gather around Phillip Agnew, a surrogate for the Democratic presidential candidate some skipped class to support: Bernie Sanders.
"You all will define who is the next president of the United States of America," Agnew shouts to the crowd assembled around him. He waits dramatically for a beat. "No pressure!" The crowd roars.
The giddy mood can't just be explained by Sanders's position at the top of the polls ahead of Super Tuesday in California, where he has double the support of his nearest challenger for the Democratic nomination, Elizabeth Warren.
In primaries past, the country's most populous state has punched well below its weight. In 2016, for instance, California didn't vote until early June, long after it was clear Hillary Clinton had the nomination all but sewn up.
Moving the primary three months earlier to join 14 other jurisdictions today on Super Tuesday has been an injection of relevance and excitement in the state's contest. Now millions of California voters are acutely aware of the central role they could play: for the first time in decades, the California primary could decide it all.
"It feels good because now my voice is officially counted," said Penelope Valle, an 18-year-old Cal State Bakersfield student.
She said she's excited that California voters no longer feel redundant or "overshadowed" by results in so many smaller states. "Being able to make a bigger impact is great."
The impact could be massive: California offers roughly 20 per cent of the 1,991 pledged delegates a candidate needs to secure the Democratic nomination.
And that, says longtime Democratic strategist Douglas Herman, has changed the way some candidates have approached campaigning in the Golden State.
"You've always seen the fundraising stops in California," Herman said. "It's been traditionally an ATM for the Democratic Party. I think that what you've seen this cycle have been a lot more real events and real opportunities for candidates. And that has changed. That's different than it's ever been before."
Herman, a partner at the Strategy Group political consulting firm, said California is such a large state, it's often difficult for candidates to distinguish themselves through their ground game.
Some candidates, such as Joe Biden, seem to have given it a miss altogether. His campaign is hoping to capitalize on the momentum from his large win in Saturday's South Carolina primary and the fact that rival centrist candidate Pete Buttigieg has dropped out.
While Biden has held fundraisers and private speeches in California, he hasn't held any rallies or large public events since November, and was a no-show at the party's two biggest gatherings in the state. One possible explanation: at the beginning of February he only had $7 million available, less than half of Sanders's cash reserves.
Biden only has one field office in California, while Sanders has more than 20, many of them in places other candidates have largely ignored.
"Bernie's done a great job of being present, and he has a very large online army and they've been very active," Herman said. "And so he's had a presence here even when he's not. And that's been very helpful to him in his organizing efforts."
Agnew, who travelled across the state to stump for Sanders, said the campaign has benefited from the name recognition and networks set up during the senator's unsuccessful battle with Clinton four years ago.
"This is a campaign that was here in 2016 and really never left," Agnew said. "The seeds of what we planted have grown and germinated over the last three or four years."
In contrast, Mike Bloomberg entered the race late and has swamped the airwaves with ads in some of the most expensive media markets in the country.
"This guy's flying on a rocket ship and everybody else is in biplanes in terms of the way he has put together his campaign and the money he's spending," Herman said.
"The depth and the breadth of what he's doing is unmatched and has never been seen in presidential politics. So the Bloomberg effect is going to be very interesting."
For those without existing infrastructure and unlimited budgets, such as Warren and Biden, California can be a money pit.
And according to Mindy Romero, director of the California Civic Engagement Project at the University of Southern California, primaries are "primarily a resources game."
"The early date does require candidates and campaigns to come to our state to vie for those delegates," Romero said.
"How do they have the time to traverse our huge state, to engage with our many diverse populations?"
She believes both California and Texas — the second-biggest state to vote on Tuesday — may come down to this:
"No candidate can be successful in California unless they are doing significant sincere outreach to the Latino community," Romero said.
"Latinos will be at least 21.5 per cent of all voters in the upcoming primary ... that's almost 1.9 million voters. If turnout surpasses 2016 rates, which were very high, then it could be even greater."
And her research suggests that Hispanic hearts aren't easily captured with ads.
"It has to be on the ground, it has to be person-to-person, has to be multiple contacts, what I call deep connection," Romero said. "And you can't get that through media buys."
The candidates' campaigning strategy is further complicated by the way the state allocates its delegates.
California's primary rules award delegates in two ways: one statewide election and 53 congressional district elections. To win delegates, a candidate must reach both a 15 per cent threshold of votes statewide and in the district election.
The candidates reaching that threshold will then divide the delegates based on their vote percentages, while those who don't make the threshold get none.
"Because of the way delegate allocations are made at the congressional district level and the statewide level, it's more likely to produce a muddle than a clear gap and a victory," Herman said.
The wait could be a long one.
California's Democratic delegates can't officially be awarded until state election officials finalize the vote totals on April 2. That's because most of the state's 20 million registered voters traditionally vote by mail.
While the early voting process has been underway since Feb. 3, mail-in ballots can be accepted up to three days after the election. The task to add and then calculate each candidate's totals based on whether they've met the threshold could take weeks.
