U.S. allies in Middle East welcome Trump's missile launch

When 59 American Tomahawk cruise missiles slammed down onto a government airbase in Syria late Thursday, some traditional American allies in the Middle East welcomed the strikes as a signal that the United States was once again paying attention to their region.

But the attack on the Shayrat airbase in Syria brought a swift and stern condemnation from Russia and Iran, two key players in the complex conflict in Syria, who worry that their interests could be threatened.

It remains unclear whether the missile attack, which constitutes the first direct American strike against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, is a one-off or the beginning of greater U.S. involvement in the complicated conflict that is Syria's war.

Militarily, the cruise missile strikes are likely to have little effect on Assad's ability to continue the war, now in its seventh year. The strikes destroyed about 20 Syrian warplanes, according U.S. defence officials. 

Assad's forces have several other airbases from which aircraft can be deployed. In fact, on Saturday groups which monitor the conflict said airstrikes were reported in Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province, the town where a chemical weapons attack on Tuesday left more than 80 people, including 27 children, dead.

A decision-making president

Much of the Middle East — and the world — was caught off guard by Trump's launch of the strikes, just two days after the president said he was deeply moved by images of Syrian children suffering from the chemical attack.

Some in the region see Trump's action as an attempt to prove himself to be the anti-Obama, a president who takes decisive action, compared to his predecessor who backed down on taking military action against the Syrian regime in 2013, following another and much deadlier chemical attack. 

"Trump bombed because Obama didn't," wrote Nahum Barnea in the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth.

Obama's cautious approach to the Middle East, in a foreign policy marked by disengagement following the wars of George W. Bush, caused consternation in capitals throughout the region. Saudi Arabia and Israel warned that Iran's growing influence was going unchecked.

While the Trump White House has flailed under the growing weight of questions about possible Russian involvement in last year's election, the president is now showing signs of success in one area Obama never did (or perhaps never wanted to), demonstrating that the United States takes the concerns of the Middle East seriously.

A warm White House welcome

President Trump heaped praise on two important leaders from the region last week, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt and Jordan's King Abdullah II, when they separately visited the White House. 

Obama apparently never invited Sisi to the Oval Office, worried about the optics of a fireside photo op with a man many of his advisers viewed as yet another Middle East strongman who couldn't care less about human rights. 

• ANALYSIS | Missiles provoke bluster but Syria solution requires U.S. and Russia at the table
• ANALYSIS | Trump's Syria strike stirs up alt-right outrage
• ANALYSIS | U.S. attack on Syrian airbase raises expectations

Trump said a week ago that he is "very much behind" President Sisi, who he called a "fantastic guy" when they met last September during the presidential campaign.

While in Washington for his visit with Trump, King Abdullah took aim at Iran, the country that Obama worked hard to bring into the fold with his 2015 agreement to limit Tehran's nuclear program, all the while worrying the Sunni states in the region.

The king warned that Iran is a "potential threat to the region," in an interview with the Washington Post, adding, "there is an attempt to forge a geographic link between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah/Lebanon."

The American strikes are something the Sunni camp has been waiting for, as it puts the Shia powers  — Iran and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah — on notice that their actions will no longer go unchecked.

Keeping Iran in check

Donald Trump has called the Obama nuclear agreement with Iran "the worst deal ever negotiated." But in his first months in office, he's done nothing about it.

Besides sending a message to Assad that there are consequences for using chemical weapons, it appears Trump — through this military escalation — is also trying to roll back Iran's influence in the region.

By doing so, he's raised the expectation of U.S. allies, particularly Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was among the first world leaders to back Trump, just hours after the cruise missiles were launched from U.S. warships in the eastern Mediterranean. 

"Israel fully and unequivocally supports the president's decision and hopes the clear message will reverberate not only in Damascus but also in Tehran, Pyongyang and other places," Netanyahu said.

It's clear the Israeli leadership now feels the United States might take military action against Iran, should it develop a nuclear weapon.

But Trump's unpredictability could be a cause for concern for the Israelis on another key issue: peace with the Palestinians.

A tough spot for Israel?

The president said in February he wants to make "the ultimate deal" — something that has eluded his predecessors — and find a negotiated settlement between the Israelis and Palestinians.

That could, however, put pressure on Netanyahu to make difficult compromises, such as limiting the growth of settlements on land the Palestinians want for the future state. 

"Trump has concrete plans for an Israeli-Palestinian arrangement and he is making big plans," wrote commentator Ben Caspit in Israel's Ma'ariv newspaper. "I assume that Jerusalem is sweating more than before."

The next moves for the United States remain unclear, but the U.S. ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said Friday, "we are prepared to do more. But we hope that will not be necessary."

• Assad must go for political solution in Syria, says U.S. ambassador to UN
• 'Friends become enemies': Trump's Syria strike stirs up alt-right outrage as lawmakers praise him

Haley signalled a complete U-turn in the Trump administration's approach to Syria on Sunday, when she told CNN: "we don't see a peaceful Syria with Assad in there." Previously, forcing Assad out was not an American priority. 

The American shift of focus to Assad and his forces, largely based in western Syria, now has some analysts worried the United States may become distracted in its efforts to defeat ISIS in their stronghold, in the eastern side of Syria.