'Extremely counterproductive' to speculate on meaning of Wagner Group rebellion, Trudeau says

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said it would be "extremely counterproductive" to speculate on events in Russia over the weekend, when Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner Group private militia marched on Moscow in what appeared to be the biggest-ever threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin's leadership.

"Everyone has a lot of questions about what this actually means, but we don't yet have a lot of answers. And too much speculation right now, I think, would probably be extremely counterproductive," Trudeau said Monday. "It is obviously an internal issue for Russia to work through."

Trudeau made the remarks in Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland after meeting with Nordic leaders to discuss Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden's bid to join NATO and climate change.

Early Saturday, the Russian government was trying to quell an armed rebellion involving Prigozhin's Wagner Group, which reportedly reached Russia's Lipetsk province, about 360 kilometres south of Moscow.

The Wagner fighters captured the city of Rostov-on-Don, hundreds of kilometres to the south, before racing in convoy through the country, transporting tanks and armoured trucks and smashing through barricades set up to stop them, according to video seen by Reuters.

By Saturday evening the heavily armed Russian mercenaries began turning back, loading tanks on trailers and withdrawing from the Rostov military headquarters they had seized, a Reuters witness said.

"In 24 hours, we got to within 200 kilometres of Moscow. In this time we did not spill a single drop of our fighters' blood," Prigozhin, dressed in full combat uniform at an undisclosed location, said in a video.

"Understanding ... that Russian blood will be spilled on one side, we are turning our columns around and going back to field camps as planned."

Trudeau's reluctance to speculate on what the rebellion means for Putin's leadership was shared by the leaders of the Nordic countries, who also said it's too early to fully understand what took place in Russia. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg took a slightly stronger position.

"The events over the weekend are an internal Russian matter and yet another demonstration of the big strategic mistake that President (Vladimir) Putin made with his illegal annexation of  Crimea and the war against Ukraine," Stoltenberg told reporters on a visit to Lithuania, according to Reuters.
 
"Of course, it is a demonstration of weakness," he added. "It demonstrates the fragility the Russian regime but it is not  for NATO to intervene in those issues. That's a Russian matter."

Prigozhin rebellion

The fighters led by Prigozhin, a former convict, include thousands of ex-prisoners recruited from Russian jails.

Prigozhin's men fought the bloodiest battles of the 16-month war in Ukraine, including the protracted battle for the eastern city of Bakhmut. He railed for months against the regular army's top brass, accusing generals of incompetence and of withholding ammunition from his fighters.

This month, he defied orders to sign a contract placing his troops under Defence Ministry command.

Prigozhin launched the apparent mutiny late Friday after alleging that the military had killed many of his fighters in an air strike — a charge the Russian Defence Ministry has denied.

He said he had captured the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District without firing a shot in Rostov, which serves as the main rear logistical hub for Russia's entire invasion force in Ukraine. The surrounding area is also an  important oil, gas and grains region.

Prigozhin reached a deal with the Kremlin that saw him roll back his march and to go into exile.

Under the deal announced Saturday by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, Prigozhin will go to neighbouring Belarus, which has supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Charges against him of mounting an armed rebellion will be dropped.

The government also said it would not prosecute Wagner fighters who took part, while those who did not join in were to be offered contracts by the Defence Ministry.

Prigozhin ordered his troops back to their field camps in Ukraine, where they have been fighting alongside Russian regular soldiers.

At the meetings in Iceland, Sweden's bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization military alliance was also discussed, with Trudeau and the Nordic leaders pledging to continue to press for Sweden to be admitted. 

After the invasion of Ukraine, both Sweden and Finland took the bold step of abandoning their decades-long policies of neutrality and applied to join NATO.

Canada was the first to back both bids, and Finland was admitted in April, but Turkey and Hungary have both held out approval for Sweden's acceptance.

"We continue the conversations to ensure that we arrive at full accession by Sweden in time for [the July 11-12 NATO meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania]. Those conversations are ongoing amongst all NATO partners, and we will keep pushing," Trudeau said.

The Nordic nations have all backed Ukraine 's accession into NATO as it continues to defend itself against Russia's invasion.

Trudeau is meeting privately with the prime minister of Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre, and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to discuss NATO accession and other issues facing both countries. 

Speaking in Reykjavik later in the day, Trudeau said his government has reached out to Turkey to tell the country's leadership it hopes Sweden will have joined NATO by the time of the next alliance meeting in Latvia.

"There are hopes that further conversations between now and Vilnius will result in positive outcomes, but Canada is there to help encourage in every way possible," he said. 

Trudeau met with the prime ministers of Denmark, Iceland and Finland on Sunday as the summit got underway.

Aside from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Nordic leaders are also discussing joint efforts on climate change in the high north.

Scientists say the Arctic is experiencing some of the most acute effects of a warming planet, with defence experts saying the melting ice opens up new access to the region.