NATO chief tries to allay nuclear war fears, says exercise will proceed in face of Russian threats

NATO defence ministers met behind closed doors Thursday to discuss nuclear deterrence against a backdrop of saber-rattling with Moscow.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg sought to reassure by saying the "circumstances in which NATO might have to use nuclear weapons are extremely remote."

Stoltenberg's remarks come on the heels of the alliance announcing that its annual nuclear deterrent training exercise — known Exercise Steadfast Noon — will proceed as scheduled next week despite Russia's threats.

The manoeuvres involve training flights with fighter jets capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons, as well as surveillance and refuelling aircraft. No live nuclear weapons are used.

Stoltenberg defended the decision to proceed with the exercise, saying it's an annual event that was planned well "before the invasion of Ukraine" last February.

"The purpose of that exercise is to ensure that our nuclear deterrence is safe, secure and effective," he said Thursday in Brussels following the first round of talks among defence ministers.

"Deterrence is the way to prevent any attack on a NATO ally and to preserve peace, and we have demonstrated that NATO's nuclear deterrent is effective and works."

This year's exercise will be different, though, given that Russia has issued veiled threats to unleash tactical nuclear weapons in its war with Ukraine and the Kremlin has decided to proceed with its own annual nuclear exercises. Stoltenberg said NATO will monitor those exercises very carefully.

No evidence of Russian nuclear preparations, reports say

"NATO allies, we have very good intelligence," he said. "We have monitored Russian nuclear forces for decades and of course, we will continue to monitor them very closely and we will stay vigilant."

In several reports published this week, Western intelligence agencies said they've seen no evidence of Russian preparations to move or use nuclear weapons. Such preparations would include the movement of nuclear trains or trucks from weapons storage facilities.

Stoltenberg said Moscow has been warned against using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and has been told the consequences would be severe.

"NATO allies have communicated in different ways to Russia, and we will not go into exactly how we will respond," he said. "Of course, this will fundamentally change the nature of the conflict. It will mean that a very important line has been crossed."

A recent report by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said the world is likely no closer to such a catastrophic event than it was at the beginning of major hostilities between Russia and Ukraine in February.

William Alberque, the institute's director of strategy, technology and arms control, said in an online column that while Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his country's nuclear forces to a higher state of alert, there was no discernible change in the movements of Russia's nuclear forces.

"Putin's high-alert order had been intended to sow fear in the West, encouraging analysts and decision-makers to focus on the rising nuclear threat rather than on assisting Ukraine," Alberque wrote.

The latest threats, made following Russia's illegal annexation of four Ukrainian provinces, are intended for a political purpose other than an escalation of the war, he said.

"Rather, his messaging was intended to push the West to coerce Ukraine into negotiations and to freeze the battlefield as it is now, which would give Russia time and space to reconstitute its land forces."