Nearly 900,000 fewer people went to the U.S. in March as cross-border travel plummets
Data shows one of worst year-over-year drops recorded outside of COVID-19 crisis
The number of cross-border travellers going from Canada to the U.S. dropped by nearly 900,000 in March compared to the same month last year, according to the latest U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data — easily one of the worst year-over-year drops recorded outside of the COVID-19 health crisis.
The border figures show 4,105,516 travellers crossed the U.S. northern border in March of this year, down from 4,970,360 people who did the same in 2024 — a roughly 17 per cent decline that observers say is largely driven by President Donald Trump's trade war, 51st state taunts and Canada-bashing.
In a sign of just how much southbound travel cratered in recent weeks, more people made the trip from Canada to the U.S. in March 2022, when pandemic-related travel restrictions were still in place, than they did in the same month this year.
The decline is notable because March is typically one of the busiest months for U.S.-bound travel, with many people vacationing over spring break to sunnier climes.
Those calamitous travel figures have some U.S. state officials feeling anxious given just how much Canadians spend south of the 49th parallel.
According to the U.S. Travel Association, Canadian visitors spent $20.5 billion US stateside last year, supporting an estimated 140,000 jobs.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is trying to turn things around with a new ad campaign designed to draw Canadians back to the Golden State.
"You know who's trying to stir things up back in D.C., but don't let that ruin your beach plans," Newsom said of Trump in a video touting California to Canadians released Tuesday.
"Here in California, we've got plenty of sunshine and a whole lot of love for our neighbours up north," he said.
The chart above does not include truckers transporting goods to the U.S. or passengers flying to the U.S. from Canadian airports without pre-clearance.
Caroline Beteta is the president and CEO of Visit California, which promotes travel to the state.
She said Trump's rhetoric is unfortunate and she wants prospective Canadian visitors to know they are welcome in California.
She said Newsom is personally fronting the campaign because he's bothered by the broadsides against Canada.
"Obviously we can't control decisions made 2,000 miles away on another coast. But we want to reach out and extend that hand to Canadians and say, you're valued, and we're frustrated too," she said in an interview with CBC News.
Beteta, an American with familial ties to Canada, said Trump's tough talk has been "devastating" for the state's tourism sector — 1.8 million Canadians visited in 2024 and the number is expected to be much lower this year based on current travel patterns, she said.
"I'm not going to deny it. It's been devastating culturally, economically. I'm a hybrid Canadian, I'm hurting for what's going on in your country and I'm hurt being here in California," she said.
Ron deHarte, the mayor of Palm Springs, Calif., said Canadians are the lifeblood of the city's tourism sector — nearly 10 times more Canadians visited the desert resort town in 2024 than the number of people who actually live there year-round. Canadians also own about seven per cent of the homes in the city, he said.
"The Trump administration is sending messages that just don't feel very American. This is not the way we treat our neighbours and we certainly don't treat friends like this. It's hurting people and it's causing harm. We understand that this hits close to home to everybody in Canada," deHarte said in an interview.
DeHarte is blanketing the airport and the city's streets with "Palm Springs Loves Canada" banners to make those who are still coming feel welcome in a place that has long been a winter destination for Canadian snowbirds.
"There is a big hole that will be felt if we don't get this straightened out for next season," he said, pointing to some Canadian airlines' recent decision to curb flights to the city as demand drops.
While there are relatively few people crossing by foot into the U.S. in the middle of winter, those travellers also fell off dramatically in March — dropping from about 163,000 last year to 121,000, a 26 per cent decline.
The number of people going by plane from the country's largest airports — the ones with pre-clearance facilities where people go through U.S. customs on Canadian soil — also declined year-over-year although the drop was small, dipping from 1,369,471 to 1,316,570, or roughly four per cent.
While cross-border business air travel has largely held up, industry experts say, other data reveals the extent of the decline to destinations popular with Canadian vacationers.
According to figures from Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, the number of passengers WestJet carried to Sin City dropped by 17 per cent in February compared to the same month last year.
Discount airline Flair Airlines reported passenger volumes to Vegas dropped by 55 per cent that month while Air Canada's traffic was off by a more modest five per cent.
And, according to industry data from OAG, airline bookings to the U.S. over the summer months are down some 70 per cent.
But it's the land crossings that are bearing the brunt of this travel hiatus, said Barbara Barrett, the executive director of the Frontier Duty Free Association, a group that represents 32 independently owned duty-free shops that dot the Canadian side of the land border from coast to coast.
"Our stores are calling this a crisis. We depend 100 per cent on that travel going over the border," she said in an interview.
These stores, many of them family owned, are uniquely vulnerable to travel slowdowns, she said.
Under Canadian law, customers must take the goods purchased over the U.S. border right away — local shoppers can't help make up for lost sales.
The number of American travellers coming north, a key customer base, has also declined, according to Statistics Canada data.
"People aren't travelling and it's border community businesses like ours that are being hit the most," she said, pointing out sales are down 40 to 50 per cent on average compared to last year — with smaller stores in more remote outposts down even more than that.
"We were just on the road to recovery from the pandemic and now we've been knocked off that road.… We'll lose a third of our stores if this trend continues over the next couple of months. People are scared."
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