Chrystia Freeland has a 'legitimate shot' at top NATO job, expert says

It's the favourite parlour game of the parliamentary precinct — predicting which powerful figure is going where and why. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland finds herself at the centre of speculation now, as talk about her possible appointment to NATO's top job ramps up.

The buzz was loud enough for a journalist to ask Freeland about it directly on Wednesday, as Liberal cabinet ministers gathered on the West Coast to plot strategy for the fall session of Parliament.

Predictably, the deputy prime minister didn't bite and spoke about how she already has "two busy jobs" — a reference to her principal portfolio as finance minister.

At least four different sources — in Ottawa, Washington and Brussels, where NATO is headquartered — say Freeland's name has been tossed around for several months in international defence and security circles as a potential successor to the current secretary general, former Norwegian prime minister Jens Stoltenberg, who has been in the job since 2014.

The parlour game gets played in other capitals, too.

And while most of the speculation — first reported publicly by journalist Paul Wells in his online column — revolves around the domestic political effects of a possible Freeland candidacy, the chatter in international circles spins on a different axis.

"There are several very qualified women out there who would be very good candidates," said a top NATO official who spoke to CBC News last month. (The source spoke to CBC News confidentially because they are not authorized to speak on the matter publicly.)

"It seems there is some momentum for a woman to be the next [secretary general]."

Stoltenberg's term was supposed to end this month but NATO leaders — reeling in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine — extended that term to 2023.

Most people you talk to in the steel and glass concourses of NATO headquarters will repeat the same mantra — that the seven-decade-old military alliance is looking to gain the fresh perspective a woman would bring to the secretary general's post, and that they're looking for someone with grit and international connections.

They're also circumspect about Freeland's chances, suggesting she sits around "the middle of the pack" of women who would make strong, qualified candidates.

"Having a Canadian [secretary general] might be welcome in terms of supercharging Canada's involvement in the alliance," said Chris Skaluba of the Washington-based think-tank the Atlantic Council.

"She's broadly well thought-of in European and trans-Atlantic security circles. I think that gives her a legitimate shot."

Skaluba said "the rumour mill is pretty rampant" and senior sources within NATO have been quick to dampen the speculation.

Stoltenberg has "got more than a year left in his current mandate, so there will be lots of time for names to percolate," said a second source, who spoke on background to CBC News last month.

The jockeying for a replacement was going on in earnest in the early part of 2020, well before the initial deadline to replace Stoltenberg.

It reached a fever pitch in the summer of 2021 when U.S.-based Politico wrote about speculation in Brussels that three former presidents of NATO nations — Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović of Croatia, Dalia Grybauskaitė of Lithuania and Kersti Kaljulaid of Estonia — were among the top contenders.

Sources in Brussels said Freeland's name surfaced last fall.

The question that didn't quite get answered on Wednesday was whether Freeland might be interested in the job. 

As someone steeped in Eastern European politics and history, someone who can speak English, Ukrainian, Russian, Polish, French, Spanish and Italian, Freeland likely would be considered a major asset at a time when the alliance is trying to hold itself together in the face of a major regional war. Her knowledge of Russia and the inner workings of the Kremlin would be another major plus.

But in order to secure her candidacy, both her and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would have to work the international diplomatic circuit — likely behind the scenes — and expend political capital.

"The informal process is probably the more important one," said Skaluba, who spent 15 years at the Pentagon and as a liaison to NATO.

The lobbying and arm-twisting happens in the major NATO capitals — Washington, London, Paris and Berlin.

By the time there's a formal vote, Skaluba said, "there's going to be no drama."