Canada's aid for Ukraine set to surpass $800 million this year

Canada expects its military assistance to Ukraine to top $816 million in the current budget year, with major declines forecast in the coming years.

The Fall Economic Statement, tabled in the House of Commons by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Tuesday, provides a snapshot of what the Liberal government has spent this year on helping Ukraine's military turn back the Russian invasion.

The figure includes spending on equipment and munitions announced since the federal budget last spring — including the $500 million Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced during a visit to Kyiv in June.

The economic statement says Canada is expected to spend $318 million on military aid to Ukraine next year and $197 million in the 2025-26 fiscal year.

Canada and Ukraine are negotiating a long-term security arrangement — something G7 countries promised as bridge for the Eastern European country while it waits for NATO membership.

The money set aside in the coming years largely reflects Trudeau's promise in September, during a visit to Canada by President Volodymr Zelensky, to provide additional armoured vehicles to Ukraine over the longer term.

It's not clear whether there will be additional funding once the long-term security arrangement is finalized.

Canada has largely funded its military support for Ukraine on an as-requested, ad-hoc basis — something Zelensky's government has been quietly pushing to change into something more stable and predictable. Other allied nations have shown signs of slowing aid as the full-scale war moves towards its second anniversary.

The fiscal update also indicates what the federal government expects to spend on beefing up the Canadian army's presence in Latvia as part of NATO's deterrence mission in Eastern Europe. It forecasts spending $802 million in the next budget year, and an additional $872 million in the 2025-26 budget, on the deterrence mission.

At the NATO summit last year in Madrid, Canada committed to helping expand the current multinational battle group (to which Canada contributes roughly 1,000 soldiers) to a full brigade-sized formation (which could run to anywhere between 3,400 to 5,000 troops, depending upon their equipment requirements).

The economic update also forecasts spending on sanctions-related asset seizures — most of them aimed at Russia. The federal government expects to spend $29 million over three years on disposing of property seized from those under sanction because of the war in Ukraine. Those assets are expected to transferred to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the federal agency that tracks suspicious financial transactions is getting more intelligence powers.

The update says the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) will "use its expertise to develop intelligence" reports which can be shared with law enforcement — a measure the government says will help Canada enforce sanctions.

The agency also will have the authority to list foreign entities that present a terrorism and money-laundering threat, alerting other security agencies.