Alberta election: What a minority government could mean

Hard to believe, but Alberta has never had a minority government in its 110 years as a province. 

However, polls suggest that could change when Albertans elect a new government on Tuesday.

An exclusive poll for CBC by Return on Insight, released late last week, suggested the NDP is solidly in first place among decided voters in Alberta. 

If voters elect a minority government, that would end the 44-year streak of Progressive Conservative majorities.

The Alberta legislature has 87 seats, meaning a party has to elect at least 44 MLAs to form a majority government.

Parties in a minority government either form a coalition or reach agreements with other parties on an issue by issue basis.

John Soroski, an assistant professor in political science at McEwan University, says Canadian parties usually opt for the latter.  

"What we've generally seen in Canada is that the minority stands alone and has to informally reach out, seek out support as it goes along," he said.

Scenario #1:  PC minority government

For a party that has won 12 consecutive majority governments since 1971, this outcome would be quite dramatic, Soroski said.

"To imagine this government not being in power with absolute control would really be quite difficult to get your head around."

Of the three parties most likely to win a minority, the PCs are in the middle of the political spectrum when compared to the NDP and Wildrose Party. Soroski suggests the PCs could have the easiest time reaching common ground on issues. 

"The situation is complex, but less complicated if we have a Conservative minority government than if we have a minority government made up of a party on the right or the party somewhat on the left," he said.

Scenario #2 : NDP minority government

Alberta has never elected an NDP government in any form, so this would be brand new ground. Although Wildrose Leader Brian Jean has campaigned on a low tax platform, Soroski suggested the NDP could find support from Wildrose on issues of government accountability, and eliminating or reducing corporate donations.

Both parties benefit by pushing and keeping the PCs out of office, he said.

"I think that will really in a sense change the discourse and expectations of Albertans if the Conservatives actually are completely swept out," he said.

Scenario # 3: Wildrose minority government

Soroski said the Wildrose limited its options by not wanting to work with any party that raises taxes. The NDP has proposed a two-point jump in corporate taxes, from 10 per cent to 12 per cent, as well as an increase in personal income taxes paid by wealthier Albertans.  

Scenario #4: NDP, Wildrose, PCs win about the same number of seats

The party that held power before the election gets first option at trying to form a government.

"If there is a roughly equal situation and it is unclear what party will be in power, the previously governing party gets the first opportunity to demonstrate its ability to attract the confidence of the house — if that party wants it," Soroski said.

If that party can't maintain the confidence of the house by failing to pass a budget, then the lieutenant-governor can turn to another party to form government.