Alberta election: Prentice PCs can still win the war

I moved to Alberta in 1989 — the last, and only, time the Calgary Flames won the Stanley Cup.

Less well-known about that year was the state of flux that existed in the political realm.

My first act as head of the Angus Reid Group in Alberta was to release a public opinion poll during the election campaign. It showed a three-way tie between the incumbent PCs, led by the plodding figure of Don Getty, the Liberals, under likeable newcomer Laurence Decore, and the New Democrats, led by a feisty populist named Ray Martin.

Polls were more readily believed back in 1989, so news of a three-way tie astounded people, turned political calculations on their head and prompted commentary about the imminent collapse of the PCs' 18-year reign. Of course, the PCs won that election handily. 

Fast forward a quarter century to 2015: history may be repeating itself.

Without doubt, this is the strangest election I have ever analyzed over 25 years of polling in Alberta.- Bruce Cameron

The Flames are on to the second round of the NHL playoffs with visions of another Stanley Cup fuelling the Red Mile. And conventional thinking about the Alberta political landscape is being hastily revised.

The Alberta NDP sit on top of the opinion polls, with leader Rachel Notley riding a personal approval rate twice the level of all other opponents.

Although the PCs are second, their vaunted "Get Out The Vote" machine (GOTV) and their ability to dominate paid media in the last week gives hope of another miraculous comeback. like that in 2012.

The Wildrose, thought to be a spent force when 11 MLAs crossed the floor to the PCs last year, is running third. The party continues to show a surprising resilience in areas outside the major cities, despite a dismal performance by new leader Brian Jean in the leaders' debate.

Without doubt, this is the strangest election I have ever analyzed over 25 years of polling in Alberta. Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi called it "Seinfeldian," while the National Post has likened it to a "logic-free zone."

With the NDP having a wide lead in public opinion, why do I think the outcome is still in doubt? Because the NDP strength in numbers simply does not translate into enough legislative seats to form government.

It still comes down to the numbers

As a student of politics, I was taught that election campaigns are a form of war, fought over ideas rather than territory, and governed by a set of rules enshrined somewhere in the distant past. Anyone who has studied the history of warfare understands the premise that fighting a war on two fronts is almost always a losing battle.

Which is why this election is so unpredictable. The PCs face not only a two-front war to retain power after May 5th; in effect, the PCs are fighting a three-front war.

The first battlefront is being fought in Edmonton, where the New Democrats are poised for huge gains, and more recently in some parts of Calgary, where the NDP once had success, back when the Flames took home Lord Stanley's cup.

On the second front, the PCs face their ideological cousins on the right: the Wildrose, whose one-beat message "no new taxes" has been laboriously delivered by new leader Brian Jean. The only way to explain the continued resilience of the Wildrose is to conclude that their base is not just concerned about taxes, but rather about a host of irritants. Accountability and trust top that list.

The floor crossings angered many rural constituents, who still close deals on a handshake. An early election call broke a fixed election promise. And the "transformative" ten-year Prentice plan started off with a budget that irked many on the left and satisfied few on the right.

The third front is the most transformational and the most challenging. It is a war to reconcile three divergent realities in Alberta society.

For most of the past 44 years, electoral strategists in Alberta contended that to win a majority government, you needed to secure two out of three distinct geographic and cultural zones: Edmonton, Calgary and the rest of Alberta. But with the NDP comfortably secure in Edmonton and the Wildrose showing possible signs of strength in many rural areas, particularly south and central Alberta, that leaves the PCs secure in only one zone: Calgary. It also strands a lot of NDP momentum in the capital zone.

It will be virtually impossible for the NDP to win over 30 seats due to the concentration of most of their vote in Edmonton. Ditto the Wildrose with their strength outside the two cities. Which leaves the PCs.

Tuesday's election results likely to be close

Back to hockey. The Flames came within one game of winning the Stanley Cup in 2004. There is still a chance for the PCs to pull off a narrow win on May 5th. If you trust the polls, most Albertans think the PCs will still pull off a victory. But to do so, they have to win a number of close seats in central and northern Alberta, hold on to a handful of seats in Edmonton and rely on the power of incumbency and a great vote-pulling machine to virtually sweep Calgary.

I, for one, believe the PCs will confound the polls again and pull off a narrow win. But with the Orange Wave forming they could, like the Flames of 2004, fall just short of total victory and end up with the most seats in Alberta's first-ever minority government.