Who wins in Ford and Tory's war of words — and why it's not just empty rhetoric

Standing in the lounge of his office on Tuesday, following his latest round of criticism of the province's sweeping funding cuts, Mayor John Tory made it clear he was weary of the "war of words" between him and Premier Doug Ford.

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Soon after, Ford's camp launched another verbal missile. 

"If John Tory spent as much time going through the city's finances as he does worrying about the colour of the Toronto sign, he would be able to find some efficiencies and deliver some value for taxpayers' dollars," the premier said in a statement.

Ka-boom!

Tory's office quickly reloaded and dropped another bomb, slamming Ford for eliminating funds for Tourism Toronto to the tune of roughly $9 million a year.

"Why is the province turning off funding for a sector of the economy that keeps Toronto and Ontario strong while considering spending hundreds of millions of dollars to rip up a contract with the Beer Store?" read a statement from the mayor's spokesperson.

Ka-pow!

After weeks of similar sparring, the battle between Ford and Tory shows no signs of slowing amid ongoing revelations of purse-tightening by the province.

But political experts say this municipal-provincial clash isn't merely empty rhetoric or political posturing — instead, it reflects a tense foundation and growing divide between two leaders both hoping to win.

'Ratcheting up the rhetoric'

At a surface level, Tory and Ford are politicians with common ground.

Both are Tories; both have now worked at the municipal and provincial levels. And the mayor's history with the Ontario Progressive Conservative party currently led by Ford includes being its head through the latter half of the previous decade. 

"I led a different party in a different time," Tory told reporters earlier this week.

Henry Jacek, professor emeritus of political science at McMaster University, says that's one element of the foundational divide.

"While they are both Conservatives, they have different orientations towards what it means to be a Conservative," he explained. "Tory comes from the progressive side; Ford comes from the conservative, populist side."

Both, not that long ago, were also locked in another political battle, striving for the mayor's office in 2014 — a loss for Ford and a win for Tory.

"We're in a very special situation right now where we have a premier in Ontario who, I'll say frankly, wants to be the mayor of Toronto," said Tiffany Gooch, a political strategist and public affairs consultant at Toronto-based firm Enterprise.

Ford, she adds, is doing what he knows, which means impacting a number of the city's operations, while Tory, as mayor, "wants to have space in the discourse that is his own."

Against that backdrop, it's the provincial cuts fuelling the current battle — with Ford chopping the size of Toronto's council mid-election, overhauling transit expansion plans, ending a planned hike to municipalities' share of gas tax revenue, eliminating all provincial funding for Tourism Toronto, and cutting funding for two hot-button municipal areas: Child care and public health.

"I believe, in particular, the city is quite frustrated," said Amanda Galbraith, a principal at high-stakes public relations firm Navigator, and former director of communications for Tory.

The mayor is "ratcheting up the rhetoric" on the public-health and child-care fronts to put pressure on Ford, and that's a smart move, she said.

Being in a battle with the provincial government shows residents their municipal leader is standing up for the city, Galbraith explained.

There's also clear political strategy on both sides, according to Gooch, with Ford's camp striving to paint their funding changes as necessary for the greater cause of reducing the deficit, while the city wants to make it clear who's causing the cuts.

Galbraith says Tory's outspoken stance also offers a rallying cry for councillors against a common threat.

Close watchers of city hall might find a few of the mayor's current allies surprising — be it board of health chair and left-wing councillor Joe Cressy on the public health front, a long-time critic of Tory's transit plans, Coun. Josh Matlow, on the housing front, and Ford supporter Michael Thompson, also a councillor, on the child care front.

There's power in numbers, Galbraith said, particularly when the criticism is coming from voices like Thompson, known for being more favourable to Ford.

"It's very easy to ignore your critics," she added. "It's a lot harder when it's your friends."

Quiet on the transit front

But amid a spate of recent news conferences, letters, and finger-pointing between the two leaders and their allies, there's one area where both sides are noticeably quiet: The transit file.

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Gooch said that's because Ford's plans to take over Toronto's subway system were no surprise to the city, unlike other post-budget cuts — it was a platform point from day one.

"You're seeing pretty aggressive back-and-forth between the two of them on the public health cuts, but a very quiet, frankly business-like negotiation around the transit issue," echoed Galbraith.

If the duelling leaders quiet down on any other fronts, she adds, that could be a sign things are changing on the back channels.

So as talks and spats continue, what would a win mean for Ford or Tory?

'Winning is having control of your agenda'

"Winning is having control of your agenda," said Gooch. 

"And at this point, John Tory hasn't been able to have control over his own agenda. He came in, and at all turns, had to respond to what the province is doing and bringing down."

But if the city manages to halt any controversial cuts, or at least lay the blame for later municipal cutback decisions at the feet of the province, that's a political victory.

For the PC party, of course, winning also depends on what voters do at the ballot box three years down the line.

In the meantime, as both leaders wage their war of words, government officials at each level are making things work behind the scenes — which means there's more talking, less finger-pointing, than the outward rhetoric implies.

"What the province does as the government is so entwined with what municipalities do — they have to work together," says Jacek.

"Otherwise, there would be chaos."