Toronto weather: hot summer, maybe milder winter ahead for GTA

Environment Canada's Dave Phillips thinks this summer is shaping up to be a nice one, but as an El Nino system gathers strength, he's even more confident there's a milder winter ahead.

Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, says many in Toronto feel "we're owed a good summer," after last year's relatively cool summer and two straight bitter winters — and we might just get it.

"I think the good news for us is maybe a warmer than normal summer, but even better news might be we're not going to have the kind of winter like we've had in the last two winters," Phillips said.

Currently, Environment Canada's weather models predict slightly higher than normal temperatures from July to September, though Phillips said he doesn't expect it to be a scorcher.

But the summer months could be cooled down slightly if the current El Nino system — which features unusually warm ocean temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean — develops into a Super El Nino, something Phillips thinks is possible, though it's a "big if" at this point.

Generally speaking, Phillips said, El Nino's effects aren't felt in the GTA until the winter. But, all six Super El Nino's of the last 60 years (the last was in 1998) have come with a cooler summer.

And they've also made for warmer winters. In Toronto's case, that could mean a "less brutal" winter than what we just went through, according to Phillips.

"In some ways, I'm more confident about what our winter's going to be like than our summer," he said.

Will the rain keep up?

Predicting rainfall amounts is a risky game, but Phillips said the models appear to show a dry summer ahead.

That news may be welcome after a June with more rain in three weeks than in the previous three months combined.

Then again, Phillips said what seems to matter most to people is not how much it rains, but whether or not it rains on the weekend.

Phillips also said no matter how the summer temperatures turn out, Torontonians should still be ready to deal with extreme weather.

"Have a game plan," for dealing with severe storms, Phillips said, and keep a close eye on the weather conditions if you plan on spending time outdoors.