How will John Tory use his 'strong mayor' powers? The budget battle could tell the tale

Sitting silently to the side of a committee room at city hall, Toronto's mayor got an earful last week as the budget committee heard presentations from dozens of people from across the city.

More than ever before, the city's proposed budget is John Tory's spending package. The new "strong mayor" powers given to him by the Progressive Conservative government of Premier Doug Ford make it so. 

Unlike previous years when city staff prepared the document, under the new regime the mayor crafts Toronto's spending plan. 

Its priorities are his priorities. Its cuts are his cuts.

WATCH | Budget committee meets:

And after hearing from dozens of people in sessions he attended across the city, Tory will have to decide if he wants to change his $16.1-billion plan or forge ahead using those same "strong mayor" powers to force his through. 

Tory has said he's open to changes. Tuesday's meeting of the budget committee is the final one before the spending package goes before the full council. It will be the first chance to see just how flexible the mayor is willing to be under this new system, which seemingly requires no flexibility from the mayor at all.

'Strong mayor' system changes city budget rules

Under the 'strong mayor' regime, councillors need a two-thirds majority vote to amend the budget. So, instead of building the usual coalition required to pass it, Tory could push what is likely the most consequential vote of any council year through with support from just one third of its members.

Myer Siemiatycki, professor emeritus at Toronto Metropolitan University, said while Tory doesn't need to change a thing under the rules, politics will force him to tread lightly.

"I don't think that John Tory wants to be seen this early in the new term as using his 'strong mayor' powers to flagrantly disregard public opinion," he said. 

But any flexibility on Tory's part may have its limits. Both he and his budget chief, Coun. Gary Crawford, appear set on providing a controversial $48-million spending hike to the Toronto police.

"I don't expect that there will be any reduction in the police budget, I think he's locked into that," Siemiatycki said.

"My impression is that we're going to see a little bit of tinkering around the edges to try to signal that the public has been heard. But I don't expect much substantively to change in this budget."

The mayor has framed this spending package as big on public safety supports while holding the line on services. The police spending increase, the 5.5 per cent property tax hike, the 1.5 per cent city building levy increase, and the 10 cent TTC fare hike have proven controversial. 

Tory might be open to some local changes

Tory has hinted that he might be looking at redirecting some funds in the budget to help with mental health supports for people in crisis on the transit system. Some of the other changes could be small and hyper-local, he said.

"I will say to you that there were a number of very practical, often very local suggestions, that didn't have a big impact on the budget," he said last week of the citizen deputations.

Tory stressed that unlike the rest of council, the new "strong mayor" system puts the onus on him to ensure the spending package is balanced.

"At the end of the day, I have to make the whole financial picture work," he said. "So, it's fine to say just spend more; budgets are about choices."

Coun. Alejandra Bravo, a progressive member of council on the budget committee, said she has been talking with colleagues about potential amendments. They will be proposing changes Tuesday, she said.

Bravo said those will focus on re-allocating police resources to focus on early intervention, more funding to address homelessness, and a deeper examination of new taxes and fees to address the city's $993-million funding gap this year.

"I think that while it's unclear how every step will unfold …we still have an obligation as councillors to listen to our constituents and to listen to the broader voices in the city of Toronto," she said.

Coun. Gord Perks said the budget committee is stacked with Tory's allies. It won't be a test of the will of council, he said.

"It's an opportunity for the mayor and some of his allies to tinker a little bit," he said of Tuesday's meeting.

"What I've experienced before is the mayor might sprinkle a few million here and a few $100,000 there to try to get him out of some of the political heat he's experienced on the budget to date," Perks said. 

"But the real fight about values and bigger dollar figures will happen when this goes to council."

Coun. Josh Matlow said that because the mayor legally can do anything he wants with the budget, he most likely will. The "strong mayor" system undermines the city's democracy and limits councillors' ability to negotiate on behalf of city residents during budget deliberations, he said. 

"Our job will be to bring forward ideas that are good for our city, that have the evidence behind them, that have the strongest arguments for them, and make it very difficult for the mayor to say no to," he said.

From here, Tory will take the proposed budget and firm it up, presenting it again on Feb. 1. It will go to full council for debate on Feb. 14. 

Siemiatycki said that vote, and the wrangling over the final spending package, will give the clearest view of the power dynamic at city hall for this new term.

"Mark Feb. 14 on your calendar, because it's going to be what sets the stage and the pattern for the next four years on Toronto city council."