Toronto·Analysis

Patrick Brown: the new PC leader, past and present

Patrick Brown says he is not a social conservative, but a "pragmatic" conservative. Will that affect his chances to be premier?

What helped him to gain party leadership could hurt him at the next election

Ontario Progressive Conservative Party Leader Patrick Brown speaks after winning the leadership in Toronto. (Frank Gunn/Canadian Press)

"Ya gotta dance with the one that brung ya."

The catchy little phrase was often repeated by former Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney to explain what it takes to win.

It was something that former Conservative premier Mike Harris put into practice, winning not one but two majority governments in the 1990s.

And it's something newly elected Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown will have to keep in mind.

Brown has already been tagged with the social conservative label.

But he and all the people that now surround him — inside and outside Queen's Park — say he is not a social conservative. No, he is a "pragmatic" conservative.

The work has begun to rewrite his political past — a past that was anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage and, some say, anti-gay rights.

Those views may have helped to propel him into the leadership of his party, but they could prove a serious hindrance to leading the province after the 2018 provincial election.

Out of the mainstream

While it's a snapshot in time that will undoubtedly change, the results of a Forum Research poll, published in the Toronto Star after Brown was elected should give him pause.

The Toronto-based firm surveyed the opinions of 1,001 Ontarians right after Brown's win. The random sampling of opinions suggested support for the Tories at 33 per cent, down from a previous poll before Brown won, while support for the NDP had surged to 36 per cent, with the Liberals in third place at 29 per cent. (Forum says the margin of error in the total sample is considered accurate plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20.)

But drilling down into the poll reveals the problems for Brown that are ahead in appealing to people outside his generally socially and fiscally Conservative base.

A full 63 per cent of those surveyed said they are pro-choice, 65 per cent approve of gay marriage and 45 per cent of those polled said they support the Wynne government's new sex education curriculum, something Brown opposes, preferring, he says, that parents do the teaching at home.

But beyond that poll, what makes Brown supporters most nervous now are the endorsements he received for his leadership campaign and the congratulations sent after winning — from the anti-abortion organization Campaign Life and from members of Ontario's large evangelical community.

So while Brown may want to run from his past, you can count the provincial Liberals and New Democrats to work to ensure it's very much a part of his present and future.

Open to good ideas

But in public and private, those close to Brown (or those who now want to be) insist the "past is the past." That what Brown was as an MP is not what he'll be as a member of the Ontario Legislature and party leader.

Brown has said he's prepared to adopt good ideas from anyone, Liberal or New Democrat, red Tory or blue.

"I have always said that there is no monopoly on a good idea" has become Brown's mantra.

And as noted in Inside Queen's Park, an insider newsletter to the legislature, early proof of that came with one of his first news releases as PC leader, in which he announced his support of Premier Kathleen Wynne's plan to lower trade barriers between Ontario and Quebec.

So while these are early days for Brown, the road ahead to the 2018 provincial election is already being mapped out, and the plan comes with some risks.

The new Tory leader may dance with some of the people who elected him, but Brown seems more than ready to drop some of the socially conservative policies that got him there.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Robert Fisher

Provincial Affairs Specialist

A commentator with decades of experience covering Queen's Park, Robert Fisher writes about politics for CBC.ca. He is an award-winning broadcast journalist with more than 30 years of experience in public and private radio and television.