With Trump's tariffs now on hold, will Ontario's election campaign shift gears?
NDP, Liberals aim to press Doug Ford on provincial issues like health care, schools, housing
Ontario PC Leader Doug Ford is trying his utmost to make the threat of tariffs the entire focus of the election campaign.
Now that U.S. president Donald Trump has given Canada a 30-day reprieve from tariffs, Ford's rivals are trying their utmost to shift the narrative to other big things that are at stake for Ontario voters.
The tariff pause could provide the Ontario NDP, Liberals and Greens the opportunity they've been desperately seeking to get other issues on the table. You know, the stuff that actually absorbs the bulk of the provincial government's money and attention: health care, schools, housing.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles made education the focus of her main campaign stop Tuesday, in Ottawa.
"As premier, I will fix our schools, hire more staff, create a universal school food program, and make sure that every student has the support that they need," Stiles said.
In the news conference that followed, a reporter asked Stiles how difficult it is to get topics other than tariffs to the forefront of the campaign.
"This is exactly the moment where we need to be talking about things like education and health care and housing and cost of living," she responded.
Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie has focused her campaign largely on the number of Ontarians without a family doctor, and is aiming to go after the PC leader's record in government.
Election about 'failure of Doug Ford': Crombie
"That's what I think this election is about, the failure of Doug Ford," Crombie said during her campaign news conference Tuesday in Brampton.
"He said he would end hallway medicine, but he didn't get it done. He said he'd cut our taxes. He didn't get it done. He said he'd build housing, and he didn't get it done," Crombie said.
But how easy it will be for Stiles and Crombie to get voters to pivot their attention away from the threat of tariffs remains to be seen.
"You would think (the tariff pause) would provide them with a huge opportunity," said Bryan Evans, professor in Toronto Metropolitan University's Department of Public Administration and Politics.
Evans says there is a whole range of issues on which the other parties could critique Ford's PCs, but the challenge is getting voters to care.
"The health-care issue, it only becomes an issue [for a voter] when you or somebody in your network, your circle, your family is having a problem finding a healthcare professional" said Evans.
While health care is perpetually ranked highly in provincial elections when voters are asked for their top issues, Evans says it sometimes gets perceived as – in a word – boring.
"The existential threat of Donald Trump and the tariff agenda, it does capture the imagination more broadly," he said.
Tariffs to remain a key issue
Laura Stephenson, a professor and chair of the Department of Political Science at Western University, says while the pause potentially opens up space for other issues, tariffs will continue to be a key factor.
"I think there's a bit more breathing room, but the spectre of this [tariff threat] isn't going away anytime soon," Stephenson said in an interview.
Stephenson says with the tariff threat dominating national media coverage, it's difficult for provincial issues to break through.
"Given the media environment right now and the real threat that we're all trying to deal with at the federal level, I'm not sure how much traction that's going to get," she said.
Thrust of Ford's campaign isn't changing
It's also hard to run against an incumbent at a time like this, says Stephenson.
"There's no shortage of [other] things that people have been angry about. But at the end of the day, it's also going to be, 'Who do you trust to be the leader of the province in a challenging time?'" she said.
The 30-day reprieve is not changing the thrust of Ford's campaign.
"Make no mistake, Canada and Ontario continue to stare down the threat of tariffs," he said during a campaign stop in Ottawa. "Whether it's tomorrow, in a month, or a year from now, President Trump will continue to use the threat of tariffs to get what he wants."
A reporter asked Ford in the ensuing news conference when Ontarians will hear his party's plans to address the health and housing issues faced by the province.
Ford's response weaved in several directions:
- The slow pace of approving a municipal building permit: "It goes on the carousel, it comes back for more comments, and Little Miss Jones is worried about the grasshoppers."
- Industries unrelated to housing: "We have to move quick, no matter if we're building pipelines across our country or getting shovels in the ground for critical minerals."
- Competing against the U.S.: "The rules have changed now here in Ontario and Canada. We have to start moving or guess what, they'll chew us up and spit us out in about three seconds."
In his two-minute long answer, Ford didn't mention health care once.
There's evidence from polling that the PCs are well ahead of their rivals on the issue of who's best to deal with Trump and the tariff threat, says Éric Grenier, a polls and elections analyst who writes The Writ newsletter.
If the campaign focus shifts away from tariffs, "It is a bit of a vulnerability for Doug Ford and the PC's that they could be knocked off the one issue where they do really, really well," Grenier told CBC Radio's Metro Morning.
Grenier says the cost of living is by far the top issue of concern to Ontario voters. Although the tariff threat ranks lower, he says it can be tied to cost of living concerns.
Additionally, Grenier's analysis of the polling suggests the PCs rank ahead of the other parties on issues other than tariffs, including cost of living and – wait for it – health care.
"The ballot box questions that matter the most still tend to still favor the PCs," Grenier said.
Ford's very premise for calling the election was to get a new and stronger mandate protecting Ontario against Trump and the threat of tariffs.
The opposition parties have questioned the validity of that premise from the start.
They point out that when he triggered the election, he had more than a year remaining in his existing mandate and a solid majority, which would have allowed his government to bring in any tariff-fighting measures it wanted over the next 15 months.
With the tariffs on hold, and with Ford's party pinning its entire campaign on battling Trump, those questions won't stop.
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