What you need to know about Ontario's early election call
Did the election call catch you by surprise? We're here to help
Well Ontario, welcome to the 2025 provincial election.
Long rumoured, much debated and now officially here, Wednesday marks the start of a four-week campaign before voters go to the polls on Feb. 27.
The province wasn't supposed to see its next vote until June 2026, but Premier Doug Ford has read the political tea leaves and opted to take his chances on an early election call.
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If this news caught you by surprise, don't sweat it. Here are answers to a few key questions to help you get up to speed.
Why are we having an early election?
In his pre-election musings, Ford repeatedly insisted he needs a new mandate to spend potentially "tens of billions of dollars" to support workers that could be hit by U.S. tariffs.
That reasoning raises the question: does Ford literally need a nod from voters to spend that kind of money?
The short answer is no. The leaders of the major opposition parties have said they'd back Ford in doing what needs to be done to preserve people's livelihoods during a protracted trade war with the U.S.
Consensus like that is rare at Queen's Park these days. That said, Ford doesn't even need that support. His Progressive Conservatives hold 79 of 124 seats in Ontario's legislature, a substantial majority.
That means he can pass any legislation he wants, even if the opposition resists it. Just this past fall, for example, Ford used that majority to fast track several controversial bills through the legislature.
In the run up to the election campaign, strategists told CBC News the Progressive Conservatives were in a solid position to send voters to the ballot box. That's because public opinion polls have put them ahead of their closest political rivals, and Ford has more recently taken on a national profile as Ontario faces down the threat of U.S. tariffs.
The Progressive Conservatives have also spent the last several years building a bigger campaign war chest than any of the opposition. Holding an election now also means that unless the RCMP announces something soon, Ontarians head to the polls without any major new developments in the Greenbelt controversy.
What are the opposition parties saying?
To put things simply, the other parties are not thrilled about an election. In fact, all three opposition leaders railed against the idea in speeches to the Rural Ontario Municipal Association earlier this month, framing the early election call as a cynical powerplay by a premier who already has a mandate from voters.
"I haven't heard a single person say, 'You know what we need on top of this economic bombshell coming our way and this political upheaval and chaos in Ottawa? Yeah, we need a provincial election,'" NDP Leader Marit Stiles said to a smattering of laughs from the crowd. "It doesn't make sense, that's why nobody's saying it."
"President Trump's tariffs should be treated as a threat, not as an excuse to call an unnecessary early election," Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie said in her speech. "Doug Ford has a mandate to stand up for the people of Ontario."
Crombie in particular has accused Ford of trying to get re-elected before the RCMP completes its investigation into the Greenbelt land swaps.
"At this critical moment we need unity, not an election. We need stability, not an election. And we need a premier focused on your job, not his job," Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner told the crowd.
Would this be happening without Donald Trump?
Few people can answer this question definitively, but one thing that's certain is that the possibility of an early election in Ontario far outdates the second Trump administration.
CBC News first reported in May 2024 that Ford would not rule out an early election call. In the months since, speculation only grew with announcements like $200 "taxpayer rebate cheques" that come with a $3.2-billion price tag for the province.
Last year, a veteran conservative strategist said if an early election call was coming, the Ford government would have to give voters a good reason for calling it.
Fast forward six months and Trump is elected president, a victory he quickly followed with the promise of tariffs that threaten to send Canada's economy into a tailspin.
Ford has said those tariffs would hit Ontario the hardest, potentially putting 500,000 people out of work. That, Ford said, would require billions in government spending. And the people of Ontario would have to give him the mandate to do it.
How many seats does a party need to win the election?
Time for a quick lesson.
There are 124 seats in the Ontario Legislature. So that makes 63 the magic number for a party to form a majority government.
Before the legislature was dissolved, Ford's PCs held 79 seats. In an internal party memo sent out last week, Ford's chief of staff stressed "the stronger the mandate the better," which suggests the PCs are hoping to re-form government with an even bigger majority.
Public opinion polls suggest another PC majority is definitely possible, but politics can be an unpredictable business, and early elections have, historically, sometimes been a risky gambit.
If the PCs fall to 62 seats or anywhere lower, Ford's time as the leader of a majority government would be over.
As of dissolution, the PCs held 79 seats, the NDP 28, the Liberals nine, the Green Party two and there were six independent MPPs sitting in the legislature.
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With files from Lucas Powers