Ontario's Progressive Conservatives cruise to rare 3rd-straight majority
Premier Doug Ford is first Ontario party leader since 1959 to win 3 majorities
Ontario Premier Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives cruised to their third straight majority government Thursday, after a snap winter election fought amid the spectre of U.S. tariffs.
It was the first time since 1959 in Ontario that a party leader has won three consecutive majorities. The win is sure to secure Ford's place in the annals of Ontario political history.
The exact size of the majority won't be confirmed until Friday because mail-in votes and special ballots are still outstanding in a number of ridings, Elections Ontario said.
When Ford triggered the $189-million election he asked voters give him "the largest mandate in Ontario's history" to combat continued economic threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.
On that front, it may prove a bittersweet night for Ford and his PCs, who are likely to return to Queen's Park with roughly the same number of seats after a campaign his rivals called a cynical and unnecessary power play.
Speaking to a crowd at his election night headquarters in Toronto, Ford struck a positive note.
"This election, we asked the people for a mandate. A strong mandate that outlives and outlasts the Trump administration. A mandate to do whatever it takes to protect Ontario. Well friends, the people have spoken. They're ready to stand up for Canada," Ford continued.
"Donald Trump thinks he can break us. He thinks he can divide and conquer, pit region against region. Donald Trump doesn't know what we know. He is underestimating us. He is underestimating the resilience of the Canadian people, the Canadian spirit," he said.
NDP returns as Official Opposition
Meanwhile, the Ontario NDP secured enough seats to remain as the province's Official Opposition with Leader Marit Stiles at the helm, albeit with a reduced caucus at Queen's Park.
"The results aren't everything that we hoped for," Stiles told supporters in Toronto. "Our job is to hold this government to account, and that is the job we're going to do, with our usual fight and our determination, but also with love and hope and optimism," she added.
Stiles also said she would work with Ford in Ontario's response to looming U.S. tariffs.
"I really do want to offer him any possible help that we can provide in the face of the threat of Donald Trump. The threat is real and I deeply believe we can overcome it with a strong Team Ontario and a strong Team Canada approach."
The New Democrats were able to fend off the PCs in a number of key ridings in the Windsor, London and Niagara areas, as well as in the north. NDP incumbent Jennifer French also kept her seat in Oshawa, the only one of 30 Greater Toronto Area ridings the PCs didn't win in 2022.
As of late Thursday, the PCs had only managed to flip two seats from the NDP: Algoma–Manitoulin and Hamilton Mountain.
The PCs also made a strong push in Haldimand-Norfolk, where Bobbi Ann Brady was running for re-election as an independent, but she resoundingly defeated the party for a second time.
Crombie fails to win seat
Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie was unable to win in Mississauga East–Cooksville, losing to PC Silvia Gualtieri. Crombie was a three-term mayor of Mississauga and former federal Liberal MP. When she was elected Liberal leader in December 2023, Crombie vowed to flip every PC seat in Peel Region.
In a speech to supporters, Crombie was defiant, saying she intends to stay on as the party's leader.
"I know tonight isn't exactly the result we were looking for, but you should be very, very proud of what we did tonight. People counted us out. They said the Ontario Liberal Party was dead. Ha. Tonight, you proved them wrong," she said.
Despite Crombie's loss, the Liberals met the benchmark of 12 seats to regain official party status for the first time since 2018. Party status comes with increased financial resources, debate time and roles at Queen's Park.
The Liberals also managed to increase their provincewide vote share to nearly 30 per cent, surpassing the NDP by more than 11 per cent. The NDP vote, however, was more concentrated in specific ridings.
Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner won re-election in the riding of Guelph and the party also held Kitchener Centre, a seat they first picked up in a 2023 byelection.
"I say to Mr. Ford, congratulations on a majority government. The two Ontario Green MPPs will do our job to hold your government accountable. We will do it as the unofficial official opposition," Schreiner said.
"And I also want to be clear at the same time, we're ready to work across party lines to put people before politics and deliver for the people of Ontario and the people of our communities."
The Greens were unable to flip Parry Sound–Muskoka, where they poured considerable resources trying to unseat PC incumbent Graydon Smith, who will represent the northern riding once again.
Voter turnout was a lingering concern given the winter weather, with some regions of the province under weather advisories throughout election day. Turnout is projected to be 45.5 per cent — up slightly from 2022's 44 per cent, the lowest-ever turnout in Ontario's history.
Ford campaigned on tariff fight
Ford's election call came as he was enjoying national attention as one of the faces of Canada's response to the looming shadow of Trump's economic policy.
Often sporting a "Canada is Not for Sale" hat, Ford campaigned almost singularly on the pitch that he is the only provincial party leader who could navigate four years of economic chaos.
The PC election platform included roughly $40 billion in new spending promises, nearly half of it geared toward staving off potentially devastating consequences of tariffs on key industries.
Highly unusual for a provincial election race, Ford left the country for two anti-tariff trips to Washington, D.C., during the four-week campaign. And despite declining any one-on-one interviews with media in Ontario, Ford also appeared semi-regularly on American cable news programs.
The PCs used the backdrop of economic uncertainty to expand on its strategy of targeting traditionally working class voters and tradespeople. Throughout the contest, Ford kept a relentless focus on the economy and jobs, often pivoting to the subject even when asked about other issues.
Ford also spent considerable time campaigning in NDP-held ridings, though those efforts fell short of flipping several key seats from the New Democrats.
Perhaps his splashiest campaign pitch Ford made was a promise to build a tunnel under Highway 401. He has not offered up any ballpark cost estimates for such a massive project, and a feasibility study Ford said he ordered last year is not complete, but he said it will get built regardless. Experts have pegged the cost at between $60 billion and $100 billion.
Ford's opponents argued he cynically used the tariff threat as a pretext for an unnecessary election, in part because the PCs already had a considerable majority and more than a year left in their mandate. Ford first publicly mused about the possibility of an early vote last May, six months before Trump threatened to impose tariffs.
The NDP, Liberal and Green leaders also repeatedly alleged Ford was attempting to pre-empt the results of an ongoing criminal investigation by the RCMP into his government's Greenbelt scandal.
They also tried, albeit with limited success, to turn the focus of the campaign to Ford's record on issues like health care, housing and education.
About 2.5 million Ontarians don't have a family doctor, emergency room wait times are at record highs and hallway health care is a persistent problem.
Despite a promise from the PCs during the last election to build 1.5 million new homes by 2031, housing starts in the province have essentially stalled out. Meanwhile, Ontario's school repair backlog is nearly $13 billion.
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With files for The Canadian Press