What chance do the Toronto Blue Jays have of making the playoffs?
Last month, Toronto had a 40% to 50% chance of winning the division, now they're fighting for the Wild Card
What chance do the Toronto Blue Jays have of making the playoffs?
As the boys of summer stare down their final stretch of regular-season games, that seems to be the question of the hour in Toronto — and a 21-year-old might have the answer: a 74 per cent shot.
Those are the odds of the Jays making it to at least the Wild Card game, according to Matt Gwin, a university student who co-runs the Toronto wing of Baseball Prospectus.
"I think they'll take the top spot in the Wild Card," Gwin told CBC News. "They have more talent than all the others, like the Orioles, the Tigers, the Mariners and the Astros. They've just run into some poor luck recently."
Poor luck — or a team falling apart depending on who you ask. Since the beginning of the month, the Jays have lost 12 of their 19 games. But unlike a lot of baseball fans, a "tumultuous" stretch doesn't worry Gwin.
"I've become very desensitized to losses and stuff like that," said Gwin. "Once you do look at the overall picture, you can kind of see that it's not quite as bad as it may look in a single week."
So, how do you crunch the odds?
Let's take a look at how Gwin and the folks at Baseball Prospectus determine the Jays' playoff chances through analytics. Keep in mind, this is one system of projection. There are others and none of them are fool-proof.
It is pretty complicated, so here's a simplified list of everything that goes into determining the odds:
- Projection of the team's talent level at the time
- The team's place in the standings
- The teams the Jays still have to play through the end of the season
- The number of games left in the season
Most of those factors are fairly self-explanatory, but a team's talent-level projection is a little trickier.
The number crunchers look at an individual player's offensive and defensive statistics and compare them to stats from past players at the same position. By comparing current players with past players who have a similar profile, they can project a player's performance along a similar trajectory, Gwin said. They then look at how much playing time they're likely to get in the season to contribute to their team's overall talent.
But while that work is very important to playoff odds early in the season, Gwin said that matters a lot less with just over a week left in the regular season. Over a smaller sample (ie. fewer teams), according to Gwin, talent matters less and position in the standings matters more. A several-game lead in the standings could make all the difference.
"I think their position in the standings currently is more important than anything else," said Gwin. "Anything can really happen. That's kind of the baseball theory."
As of Friday morning, the Jays were five and a half games behind Boston in the American League East with only 10 games left in the season. They had a 74.3 per cent chance of making it to the Wild Card game, according to Gwin.
Do the Jays still have a shot at the pennant?
Technically.
"There's a numerical chance that they could win the division, but not a good one," said Gwin. "Essentially they don't control their own destiny and Boston does."
Boston has a 98 per cent chance of winning the AL East. Meanwhile, the Jays are down to 1.5 per cent odds.
September baseball has not been kind to the Jays. A month ago, the team had about a 40 to 50 per cent chance of winning the division.
"Lady luck has not allowed [the Jays] to beat the Red Sox this year," said Gwin. But he said "they're quite comparable" in terms of talent.
"That's kind of my dream playoff series. I think it would be really interesting."
The American League Wild Card Race
First though, Toronto has to get the Wild Card and win.
If the season ended today, the Jays would take the top Wild Card spot in the American League — but it's a tight race.
The Baltimore Orioles are just a game back of Toronto and hold the second Wild Card, while the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros are within a game of a spot. The Seattle Mariners are within two games of a spot, while the New York Yankees are within 2.5 games.