Thunder Bay medical officer of health concerned about potential COVID-19 growth in coming weeks

As the Thunder Bay district emerges from the province-wide shutdown, climbing COVID-19 case numbers and projections of variant spread concern the local medical officer of health.

The Thunder Bay District Health Unit on Wednesday reported 21 new cases of COVID-19. It's the fifth time in 17 days that there's been a single-day case increase of at least 20.

Twenty of the new cases are located within Thunder Bay and the surrounding area, while one is in a First Nations community. The majority — 16 — are close contacts of existing cases. Two are at the Thunder Bay District Jail outbreak, one had no known exposure to the virus, one is related to travel outside of northwestern Ontario, and the source of exposure for one has yet to be determined.
 
There are 166 known active cases in the Thunder Bay district, with 252 announced in the first 17 days of February.

Medical officer of health Dr. Janet DeMille said, at this point, she is comfortable with the region being in the red-control level of the province's pandemic response framework, but she will be watching the numbers.

"The red category still has significant limitations on facilities that are sort of allowed to reopen and on the gathering limits," she said in an interview on Superior Morning. "I think if all of those things are put in place, there are certain things we can do and do it safely.

"I think what concerns me most is not necessarily being in red right now, but what's going to happen over the next couple of weeks and even over the next month. That's in our area, as well as more broadly in Ontario, and how that might influence our case numbers and where we go in terms of that framework."

DeMille pointed to provincial modelling that projects a potential significant increase in the prevalence of variants of concern, which are believed to spread more easily and have shorter incubation periods.

'Active outbreak'

She said the health unit is continuing to manage an outbreak in Thunder Bay's vulnerable and homeless populations, which she estimated could represent about half of recent case numbers, between people directly affected and their close contacts.

"It's very much an active outbreak, unfortunately," DeMille said. "We are following up with people. We are doing a lot more testing, and there is a strong partnership of key stakeholders. 

"We're actually out there looking for cases and finding them. We do follow up with individuals. We do follow up with people they may have been in contact with."

DeMille said the health unit has implemented further case and contact management measures, which include requiring more people to isolate if they're deemed a high-risk contact, lower thresholds for deeming people as high-risk, and further testing.

The isolation shelter has recently expanded, she added, with the City of Thunder Bay, the Thunder Bay District Social Services Administration Board and St. Joseph's Care Group among the organizations involved in the facility.

"We are quite stretched in terms of that centre, but there's a lot of work that's going on every day with our partners," she said, adding the province is providing support and the Red Cross is assisting.