Sask. braces for potential trade impacts with Trump's return
Affected sectors could include agriculture, mining, steel and energy
After Donald Trump's win in the U.S. presidential election, a Saskatchewan farmer and industry experts say Canada's economy could face significant challenges if Trump follows through on plans to imposing sweeping tariffs.
Saskatchewan's economy heavily relies on exports to the international market, with the U.S. being one of its biggest trading partners. Sectors that could be impacted include agriculture, mining, steel and energy.
Rene de Moissac, a third-generation farmer near Biggar, Sask., said farmers like him are already in a difficult financial position dealing with high costs and inflation — and any added trade tariffs could drive down already slim margins.
"We have manipulations in the market already, let alone having tariffs or duties on some of our products. It deeply concerns me that this can be going on worldwide," he said.
It's not just farmers in Saskatchewan who are worried about potential trade barriers, de Moissac said, but also farmers across the country and worldwide.
"We came out three years ago with $18/bushel wheat. We're right now stuck in a tad under eight bucks depending on which elevator you're hauling to. Anything beyond that is getting lower than the cost of production," he said.
"So yes, does it affect us or would it affect us? Absolutely."
In 2023, Saskatchewan exported agri-food worth $6.7 billion to the U.S. alone. Canada should show some courage and assert its trade importance, de Moissac said.
"We export lumber, an awful lot of wheat and other grains, beef, gas and oil, and we export most of that into the United States. And that's why our balance of trade is so high," he said.
"I think maybe Americans from time to time, in a Canadian way, may need to be politely reminded of that fact that [Quebec Hydro supplies power to the northeastern United States]. Most of the oil that they enjoy is coming from Alberta, Saskatchewan. So I think politicians in this country need to grow up, grow a set and simply call them on it," he said.
Canada's steel sector
Catherine Cobden, president of the Canadian Steel Producers Association, said she hopes that the new U.S. administration will consider recent Canadian trade adjustments.
"We've made some really big changes in Canada and I think they're right in on par and in alignment of his vision. Specifically, that includes Sec. 53 tariffs that the Canadian government put in place on Chinese steel products that is directly aligned with the U.S. tariffs on China," she said.
Cobden said there is uncertainty ahead, but said she believes Canada's steel industry is now better positioned than it was in 2016 and she sees an opportunity to strengthen trade relationships.
Impact on economy
Bruce Anderson, a business professor at the University of Regina, said Saskatchewan could find its longstanding trade relationships in jeopardy.
"Supply chains, especially those shared across borders, would need major restructuring. That doesn't happen overnight and would lead to further costs and delays," Anderson said.
He added that broader economic impacts could affect government revenue and employment in the province. A significant reduction in exports could lead to lower government royalties from oil and mining, shrinking provincial tax revenue.
"These industries are significant contributors to our provincial treasury," he said. "Reduced profitability due to tariffs means fewer corporate taxes paid, which could constrain public services and investments."
Anderson said that uncertainty is the biggest threat under Trump's potential trade policies.
"Corporations, particularly the large ones, do contracts well in advance. They build facilities that have an eight- to 10-year window to plan for this," he said. "I'm certain the tariffs and stuff really throws a wrench into their business plans and their ability to do it."
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