Sask. Health Authority modelling projects record COVID-19 hospitalization numbers in Feb.

Recent modelling from the Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA) projects Saskatchewan almost doubling its record for people in hospital with COVID-19 by mid-February, even in the most optimistic scenario.

Health policy consultant and retired Saskatchewan physician Dennis Kendel shared the internal SHA modelling on Twitter Wednesday. The modelling outlines five scenarios, with each calculated based on different potential rates of the severity of Omicron compared to Delta, different doubling times for the virus, and different levels of population mixing.

The most severe scenario projects more than 1,500 people in hospital with COVID-19 in mid-February, not including those in ICUs. That scenario is based on a 6.1-day doubling time, Omicron being 40 per cent as severe as Delta, and hospital stays for Omicron being 25 per cent shorter than those for Delta.

The best-case scenario projects 600 people in hospital in mid-February, not including those in ICUs. That scenario is based on four weeks of reduced population mixing beginning Jan. 19, along with a 4.7-day doubling time, Omicron being even less severe than the other scenarios, and hospital stays for Omicron being 67 per cent shorter than those for Delta.

Saskatchewan's record for people in hospital with COVID-19 (including those in ICUs) at any one time during the pandemic was 356 on Oct. 6, during the fourth wave.

On Thursday, Opposition Leader Ryan Meili spoke in an interview about how the internal government modelling appeared on social media just two days after Premier Scott Moe took to Facebook to explain the government's response to rising cases and hospitalizations.

Moe had written in his post that, "hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and COVID-19 related deaths remain significantly lower than other provinces that have strict lockdown policies in effect."

Meili said that by not sharing the internal modelling, Moe is "trying to gaslight the people of Saskatchewan and being completely dishonest."

"Saskatchewan is at the beginning of a huge spike in hospitalizations."

Meili said the chart Moe shared showing the province well behind Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba was "incredibly irresponsible."

"What that chart really shows is where we are going. We are headed for a situation that's as bad or even worse."

On Thursday, Saskatchewan had 215 in hospital with COVID-19, a 75 per cent increase from a week earlier.

Chief medical health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab has said Saskatchewan's Omicron wave trails those in Ontario and Quebec by at least two weeks, and that hospitalizations will trail new cases by two to four weeks.

Meili said measures are needed, but not ones that interfere with people's lives in a major way.

"No one is calling for lockdowns and lockdowns are not what we need," Meili said.

He said a reduction in social mixing is needed in the short term to preserve the health-care system.

"We do not need to be having large gatherings at this time," he said.

"There is no debate or discussion among people who are within public health. We know smart public health measures can reduce the impact of this wave."

Leaders from unions representing 113,000 Saskatchewan workers in health care and education, among other industries, held a joint news conference Thursday calling on the provincial government to implement measures including gathering limits.

Moe defends government response

In a statement to media on Thursday afternoon, Moe said the modelling is "one piece of information the government considers."

"We are placing greater emphasis on closely tracking actual real-time data from across Canada to inform our COVID-19 response."

Moe said Saskatchewan's COVID-19-related hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths are well below both the national average and other provinces with "severe restrictions."

"The rate of COVID-19 related deaths in Saskatchewan to date in January is 0.5 per 100,000 population and there have been no deaths reported in the past two weeks," Moe said.

"Saskatchewan's rate of COVID-19 related deaths in January is the lowest of any province and 90 per cent below the national rate of 4.8 per 100,000 population."

Saskatchewan is the only province to not implement gathering or capacity limits in response to Omicron.

Moe pointed to Quebec's fatality rate as the highest in Canada and said that province had "the most severe lockdown measures."

"The government recognizes that hospitalizations are rising and will continue to rise for some period of time," Moe said. "However, we see no clear evidence that lockdown measures have reduced hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths in other provinces, and as a result, there is no reason to impose harmful new restrictions in Saskatchewan."