Sask. expected to grow, but share relative to Canada could shrink

Saskatchewan could get a lot bigger in the next quarter century — but it is still likely to remain one of Canada's small fries, Statistics Canada says.

On Wednesday, the federal agency released long-term population projections for Canada and all the provinces and territories.

The study looks at various growth scenarios for every region.

The good news for those who like growth is that Saskatchewan — currently with about 1.11 million people and in the middle of a growth spurt — will become more populous under all scenarios.

At the low end (assuming growth rates that were typical in the 1990s and 2000s) it would end  up with 1.17 million.

At the high end (assuming more robust recent growth rates) there could be more than 1.5 million people here by 2038.

However, Alberta is growing faster. As well, there's no chance Saskatchewan's population will catch Manitoba's in the next quarter century, according to the StatsCan analysts.

What might be more concerning, however, is that Saskatchewan population as a percentage of the total Canadian population is expected to fall from its current 3.2 per cent.

Under the most pessimistic forecast, that share would fall to 2.7 per cent.

One optimistic scenario would see Saskatchewan share actually grow, however, to 3.5 per cent.

"I think it's positive," Premier Brad Wall told CBC News when asked about the numbers. "I mean there are challenges that come with growth. We need to continue to work to meet them. But compared to the challenges of losing population or a stagnant population that means your tax base is not keeping up with health budgets and education budgets because it's the tax base that supports those things. Those are much more severe and dangerous for a province."

Wall added that the government's objective is to have population growth keeps pace with the national average.

"We have been actually exceeding the national average of growth for the last little while," he said. "So if some of the projections on the high end and I'm guessing they are, are in part because of the reality today or the last seven, eight years then that would speak to the fact that we have shown an ability to grow our population here faster — not we the government, but the province — has grown its population faster here than the rest of the country, and as long as there are opportunities to come to I think we've got a good chance at least to keep up with the national average."