Sask. biomedical prof urges residents to 'flatten the curve' as hospitalizations rise, cases decline

A Saskatchewan biomedical professor is reminding residents not to lose sight of the record-high COVID-19 hospitalizations across the province as case numbers decline.

As of Wednesday, 220 people were in hospital with the virus — 36 of them under intensive care. Case numbers, on the other hand, were down for the fourth consecutive day.

Kyle Anderson, who teaches biochemistry, microbiology and immunology at the University of Saskatchewan, said the drastic comparison comes down to a roughly three-week lag between cases and hospital admissions. Hospitalizations tend to accumulate, he added, because of "long-hauler" patients who can remain in hospital for more than two months.

"It's about how quickly we're replenishing those hospital beds, and if people are staying in hospital beds longer, that means — even with the same [decline in] case numbers — we're going to see those hospitalizations go up," he explained.

Right now, Anderson said the province is close to the peak of what it saw about three weeks ago when case numbers were high. He expects many of those people who tested positive then are in hospitals now.

Speaking to other medical professionals in the province, Anderson said he's heard of many intensive care units reaching full capacity with COVID-19 patients — and it's putting strain on the health-care system.

"We may start to have hospitals that are really starting to get reduced capacity in the services they can provide," Anderson said. "We can make more beds, but we can't make more nurses or doctors or respiratory therapists. We can't staff all of that the same way we can sort of put more stretchers in the hallway."

Anderson estimates another 80 people will die of COVID-19 in Saskatchewan in the next three weeks, based on the province's current survival rate.

With that in mind, plus the rising hospitalization numbers, Anderson said he's urging residents to follow the current guidelines to help "flatten the curve" — for the sake of health-care workers.

"It's all of those [health-care workers] who are really carrying the rest of the province on their backs," Anderson said. "We want them to be able to go home and enjoy time with their kids, or just decompress for a day and not have to worry about, 'Oh, I better take another shift in the ICU [intensive care unit] because, if I don't, people might die.'"

'Stay the course with these current measures'

During the province's COVID update earlier this week, Saskatchewan chief medical health officer Dr. Saquib Shahab addressed the rising deaths and hospitalizations, noting it will take two to four weeks before residents notice a difference.

Shahab said the more vaccines are administered, the brighter the light at the end of the tunnel becomes. 

However, COVID-19 shots are currently on pause as the province awaits more shipments next month. There are 5,850 doses expected from Pfizer on Feb. 1 and another 7,100 doses from Moderna on Feb. 22.

"The [vaccine] supply ... will be slow and steady for the next few weeks, but it will start picking up in March and April. Then we'll see a significant impact in hospitalizations and deaths," Shahab predicted.

With test positivity rates currently under 10 per cent in Saskatchewan, Shahab said the province is heading in "the right direction," which emphasizes the need for people to follow the recently extended COVID measures.

"Some people say it's too little, some people say it's too much — but they do strike a fine balance in minimizing cases as long as the guidelines are followed," Shahab said. "If we can stay the course with these current measures over the next three weeks, and we continue to see a downward trend, I think that would really be a positive outcome."