Poll of Sask. voters has Conservatives maintaining strong support, but Liberals gaining ground
Liberals most competitive in Saskatoon, Regina: SUMA poll
A new poll of Saskatchewan voters shows growing support for federal Liberals in Saskatoon and Regina — enough to make some races competitive — but Conservative support remains high across the province.
"That the Liberals are really neck and neck with the Conservatives in the two big cities is a bit of a surprise," said Éric Grenier, who runs CBC's election poll tracker and writes about elections at TheWrit.ca.
"If it holds until election day, if we see numbers similar to this, it's very possible the map of southern Saskatchewan won't be painted entirely blue."
The poll, exclusive to CBC News, was commissioned by the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association (SUMA) and conducted by Rubicon Strategy via an online survey of 747 Saskatchewan residents from April 5 to April 10. The data was weighted to reflect the age and gender distribution of the province. The margin of error for a random sample of this size is plus or minus four per cent.
When asked who they would vote for if an election was held today, 38 per cent of people polled said they'd vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 25 per cent said they'd vote for the Liberal Party of Canada, according to results of the poll.
Twenty per cent of voters were undecided when polled and 11 per cent of voters said they'd vote for the federal NDP.
But in Saskatoon and Regina, Conservatives support is dropping among decided voters as Liberal support rises, with the parties within five points of each other among the poll's respondents.
In Regina, 42 per cent of decided voters supported the Conservatives, compared to 37 per cent supporting the Liberals. Saskatoon's split was 43 per cent for the Conservatives and 38 per cent for the Liberals.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh both made campaign stops in Saskatoon on April 9, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has yet to stop in Saskatchewan this election.
The swing in support, and the decline in NDP support, makes the Liberals more competitive in some ridings, but likely not enough to actually flip more than one seat, Grenier said.
"The margin between the Conservatives and the Liberals [in previous polls] was so big that even with this kind of swing, the Liberals aren't necessarily the favourites to win anything other than Regina Wascana," he said.
NDP support is at 11 per cent and 13 per cent in Regina and Saskatoon, respectively.
The poll also asked voters about leader likeability, their top policy issues and Canada's trade war with the U.S.
Rubicon Strategy partner David Herle said the numbers show the Liberals approaching the Conservatives in several Saskatchewan ridings.
"I think that the Liberals would have a fighting chance on these numbers in Saskatoon West and Saskatoon-University, and then in Regina-Wascana and Regina-Lewvan," Herle said in an interview.
The Canada-U.S. trade war and President Donald Trump's annexation threats are causing voters to switch support based on their view of party leaders, Herle said. When asked if it's more important to protect Canada from Trump or to ensure Liberals aren't elected, 54 per cent chose protecting Canada over defeating the Liberals (36 per cent), according to the SUMA poll.
Herle said he isn't surprised to see Saskatchewan voters assess leaders on how they will handle Trump, because the provincial economy depends it.
"It's not just how much Canada sells, it's what Saskatchewan sells," Herle said. "In addition to the energy, there's obviously uranium and potash, two extraordinarily critical products for the American marketplace. As much as any province in Canada, Saskatchewan holds the whip hand over Donald Trump."
This is one of the rare federal election polls that specifically surveyed voters in the province. Usually, Saskatchewan is lumped together with Manitoba and sometimes Alberta, which is why SUMA commissioned the poll, SUMA president Randy Goulden said.
"That may work for a national lens, but SUMA really wanted to identify Saskatchewan specific opinions and concerns," Goulden said. "We are hearing from the residents, and now confirmed in the survey, that the actions taken by President Trump and the realities that are coming forward with tariffs are concerning.
"They're very concerned about the cost of living.… What that concern around affordability points out to SUMA is that we need to continue calling for economic growth."
Goulden said eliminating inter-provincial trade barriers and finding new export markets for Saskatchewan goods are among SUMA's top policy issues.
CBC's Poll Tracker, which compiles publicly available polls, has the Liberals taking 43.9 per cent of the vote country-wide compared to the Conservative's 37.5 per cent, with the NDP and Bloc Québécois facing significant seat losses. The Poll Tracker puts the odds of a Liberal majority at 85 per cent.
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