Health policy analyst predicts dire future based on Sask.'s COVID-19 modelling

The latest COVID-19 modelling paints a dire situation for Saskatchewan, and a health policy analyst says what the province is doing now is not sustainable.

As of Wednesday, there were 82 patients with COVID-19 in intensive care. 

Saskatchewan normally has 79 ICU beds in total. 

The new modelling —  released by the government on Wednesday — suggests that COVID-19 ICU numbers could more than double or even triple by January if people don't change their behaviour. 

"I think the biggest takeaway is that things are bad and they're going to get worse under any scenario," said health policy analyst Steven Lewis.

 "It's especially dire if there aren't new measures in place to limit people's gatherings."

According to Lewis and the new modelling, if Saskatchewan carries on without any changes, new restrictions or additional booster shots, the number of ICU patients with COVID-19 could climb to over 250 in the new year.

That would be 25 times the sustainable number of COVID-19 patients in the province's intensive care units, said Lewis. 

"You can't have it all devoted to looking after people with COVID without causing great harm and endangering a whole lot of others."

It could take about four months or more to get back to sustainable levels without the implementation of further public health orders, according to the model. 

Unsustainable level

Even the other modelling scenarios for Saskatchewan don't provide a very promising outlook for the near future.

If people reduced their contacts, and if the province reintroduced measures such as private and public gathering limits, the number of COVID-19 ICU hospitalizations could be slowed or even go down from its current, unsustainable level. 

The number of COVID-19 patients in ICU would still be above sustainable levels, however, until early in the new year, depending on the modelling scenario.

"So far, the government has seemed adamant that it will not impose stronger policies," said Lewis.

"The [government's] position is, if we put in stronger measures, it penalizes people who are vaccinated, which spectacularly misses the point because the duty is to keep the public safe."

Lewis said he finds it difficult to imagine what kind of new information or circumstances would persuade the government to change its course.

For months, health-care professionals have been urging the government to implement new health measures.

On Wednesday, Saskatchewan's Chief Medical Health Officer Dr. Saqib Shahab became emotional during a COVID-19 news conference due to the dire situation in the province.

"There is a recalcitrant minority of the population that, for whatever reason, has not and will not get vaccinated willingly," said Lewis.

"That's where the danger lies, and I don't see that the government is committed to doing very much to, at the very least, keep these people safe."

Greatest risks are in unvaccinated people

According to the province, the majority of COVID-19 patients in hospitals — and ICUs in particular — are unvaccinated.

"If you could find a magic way to track and keep all kinds of restrictions to unvaccinated people, sure, that's what you do," said Lewis.

"But we don't have those measures. We can't control it that way. So we need to have a blanket policy to hope to be effective."

According to another slide presented by the government on Wednesday, the province won't be back to "normal" until the start of 2022 and only if the situation doesn't get worse and numbers start decreasing. 

In the meantime, around 20,000 surgeries and other procedures might have to be cancelled, according to the government's projection.

"When you cancel 20,000 surgeries, some of those people will suffer considerable harm," said Lewis.

"The toll of having COVID dominate the health system and consume all of the resources and shunt aside other needs is going to be pretty high."