The weather outside has been frightful, but white Christmas still in doubt

"Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow" seems to be Mother Nature's motto this fall but with the coming of winter, at least to begin with, that is going to change.

And that's making this year's white Christmas predictions complicated.

There has been snow on the ground at Charlottetown Airport without a break since Nov. 13. This fall saw a total of 103.4 centimetres of snow. The average for October, November and all of December is 86.5 centimetres. The latest storm left the measuring station at the airport with 19 centimetres on the ground.

Rain coming

But it could all be gone by Christmas morning.

A major thaw and rainstorm will come to the Island at just about the same time as the arrival of winter late Friday afternoon. There are 25 millimetres of rain forecast, strong south winds, and temperatures into the double digits..

In the face of these uncertainties, CBC News asked five weather specialists familiar with Prince Edward Island for their predictions, with a deadline of noon on Friday. The official criteria is two or more centimetres of snow on the ground when it is measured Christmas morning.

Here's what they had to say.

• Jim Abraham: White.
• Adam Fenech: White.
• Linda Libby: White.
• Jay Scotland: Green.
• Ryan Snoddon: Green.

Predicting a white Christmas on P.E.I. is rarely an easy task. Over the last 20 years there have been 10 white and 10 green. And asterisks on the table indicates a perfect Christmas, white with snowfall on Christmas Day.

The 2017 panel went all green, and Christmas morning was white. In 2014, the season of the snowiest winter on record, Christmas was green.

There was significant hedging on the panel this year, with Libby saying the snow cover will be thin with some green showing, and Scotland saying snow banks and drifts will survive, but the natural snow cover will be mostly gone.

This year's forecast contains not only the possibility of a thaw melting a significant amount of snow, but also predicted cooling temperatures and flurries at the end of the storm, that have the potential to restore some of what is lost.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are for temperatures well below freezing, with a mix of sun and cloud. White or not, it sounds like those travelling will not have to hate going out in the storm.

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