Ottawa-Gatineau housing market heated up in 2024, say real estate watchers

Real estate agents and experts in the National Capital Region say 2024 ended on a positive note for the local housing market, which is showing signs of consumer confidence and stability after a slowdown last year.

Whether that holds depends on how looming cuts in the federal public service and the U.S. threat of tariffs affect the local economy, however.

Paul Czan, president of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB), said the 11.8 per cent increase in sales in 2024 compared to the previous year is a step in the right direction.

"We've definitely seen a recovery," he said. "That definitely shows an increase in consumer confidence. People are getting back into the market. They're realizing their dreams of home ownership."

Czan said the decrease in the interest rate and federal changes to mortgage rules are helping put home ownership back within reach for some, but access for seniors and first-time buyers remains a major issue.

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But he warned that if political and economic instability disrupts the construction of new housing supply, it could also jeopardize affordability.

Despite those worries, Czan said Ottawa remains a seller's market where supply struggles to keep pace with demand and many homes sell for close to their listing price.

"During the peak times of COVID in 2021, houses were only taking about seven days to sell. Now [they're] sitting at about 20 days [median] on market, which is still a really quick figure," he said.

The median price for a home in Ottawa, including all types of builds, was $630,000 in 2024. 

'Perfect storm' in the Outaouais

Roch St. Jacques, president of the Outaouais Realty Board, said western Quebec saw an unexpectedly high median house price of $475,000 — about $20,000 short of the peak reached during the pandemic.

"The end [of this year] was much more intense than we could have anticipated," St. Jacques said.

Tight supply coupled with buyers paying closer attention to falling interest rates is contributing to a "perfect storm," he said.

"That's creating a feeling for the purchasers that now's the time," St. Jacques said.

Francis Cortellino, an economist at the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, said some buyers bought when interest rates were high to avoid higher listings prices, taking advantage of variable rate mortgages to decrease their monthly payments. 

He said uncertainty over American politics and public sector jobs could "contain" a strong trend toward stronger housing market activity in the National Capital Region.

"If you look at Ottawa-Gatineau right now, compared to 10 or 15 years ago, the economy is more diversified than before, so there's more people working in sectors that are growing," he said.

"[There is] uncertainty for some people, but for other people life goes on."