Population growth in N.S. now mainly driven by international migration
Pandemic-driven stream of people moving to N.S. from other provinces has slowed
The flow of people moving to Nova Scotia from other Canadian provinces has slowed down over the last two years, meaning the province's population growth is now primarily made up of international migration.
Were it not for people moving to Nova Scotia, the population would be in decline, with deaths outnumbering births.
That's according to recent population estimates from Statistics Canada released on Dec. 17, 2024.
The COVID-19 pandemic saw a large bump in the number of people moving to Nova Scotia from other provinces, notably Ontario and British Columbia.
Ontario was the province that saw the most exchanges during that bump. Between Jan. 1, 2021, and Sept. 30, 2024, Statistics Canada estimated more than 45,000 people moved from Ontario to Nova Scotia. At the same time, more than 24,000 people moved the other way.
Though people are still moving to Nova Scotia from other provinces, the pace of these interprovincial moves has slowed from what happened during the pandemic.
And with consistently fewer births than deaths every quarter since fall 2016, the province's "natural increase" is also heading downward.
For example, between July 1 and Sept. 30, 2024, Statistics Canada estimated 2,912 deaths in the province compared to 2,016 births.
This leaves immigration as the main driver of population growth.
The most recent available estimates cover the period up until Oct. 1, 2024. Statistics Canada estimated Nova Scotia's population at 1,079,676 as of that day.
While immigrants make up a small portion of the total provincial population, permanent and non-permanent immigrants have accounted for a large portion of the population increase in Nova Scotia since 2021.
Statistics Canada defines non-permanent immigrants as people from another country who live in Canada with a work or study permit, or those who have claimed asylum in Canada.
The province's recently re-elected Progressive Conservative government has set what Premier Tim Houston calls a "stretch goal" of reaching two million people by 2060 in an effort to stimulate economic growth.
Some political leaders said they have concerns about that target, saying they believe population growth must be handled in a manner that does not put a strain on housing and health care. These views are being shaped by a period of population change with no equivalent for decades.
The Nova Scotia Department of Finance noted the period between Jan. 1, 2024, and March 31, 2024, was the largest quarter of immigration in records dating back to 1946, but that record was surpassed just three months later.
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