Atlantic hurricane season outlook updated, more storms expected

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has updated its outlook for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Forecasters on Thursday increased the likelihood of an above-normal season to 60 per cent, which is up from a 30 per cent chance in the outlook the agency issued in May.

The earlier projection of 12 to 17 named storms has now increased to 14 to 21 storms.

Of those storms, six to 11 could become hurricanes. Of those, two to five may become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater.

It's important to remember that these outlooks are for overall season activity, not storms that make landfall.

Heading into the season, it was thought that a developing El Niño could limit tropical storms and hurricane activity. When a warmer-water El Niño event is underway in the Pacific, stronger wind shear occurs over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Ocean. This wind shear can suppress the development and growth of tropical storms and hurricanes.

While El Niño has developed, its impacts on the tropical region are now looking less likely to counterbalance the other major factor of this season — warm ocean temperatures.

While temperatures in the North Atlantic were expected to be above average, the record warmth in the basin has been making headlines over the past few months. 

Sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic have been well above average since the early spring and have been on record-crushing pace since June.

While the largest sea-surface temperature anomalies are currently around Atlantic Canada and Greenland, the tropical Atlantic and main storm development region is also running well above average.

The warmer ocean temperatures in the tropics will be key, with the West African monsoon season expected to be near-to-above average.

Large areas of thunderstorms off the coast of Africa are the seeds for tropical systems, especially when they roll into ocean water that is running warmer than normal.

While we can't ultimately tell where and when these storms will occur, we do know that the month of September is historically the most active.

With damage from post-tropical storms Fiona in 2022 and Dorian in 2019 fresh on the minds of Atlantic Canadians, we really don't need a reminder of how destructive these storms can be.

The updated outlook is a good reminder that the time to be ready and prepared is almost here.