5 things that will determine the fate of Nova Scotia's election today

After a month of promises, platforms, debates and attack ads, provincial politicians are putting their futures in the hands of Nova Scotia voters.

Liberal Leader Stephen McNeil and his team are looking for a second straight majority government, which would be the first in the province since 1988, while Progressive Conservative Leader Jamie Baillie and NDP Leader Gary Burrill have each made the case that McNeil and the Grits aren't even worthy of being reduced to a minority government.

As people make last-minute trips to the ballot box before the polls close at 8 p.m. AT and results begin to flow in, here are five storylines worth watching as we await the final numbers.

What will happen with the rookie Liberal MLAs?

The Liberals' march to victory in 2013 included electing 22 first-time MLAs. They added two more rookies during byelections in 2015. What happens to those 24 candidates in their bids for re-election will ultimately determine if McNeil and his team return to Province House as the government.

While some of those candidates, including those who served in the Liberal cabinet, should have a clear path to a second straight electoral win, others are in tight races — with NDP and Tory candidates trying to capitalize on anger about the state of health care in the province and the Liberal government's recurring feuds with organized labour.

Can the NDP win its most important seat?

Burrill has been on a mission to remake Nova Scotia's NDP along its more traditional social-democratic roots since assuming the party leadership in February 2016. For Burrill to continue that effort, it is crucial for him to have a seat in Province House.

Burrill served one term as MLA for Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley from 2009 to 2013, but lost his bid for re-election. This time he's running in Halifax Chebucto, a seat that for years was considered safe for the party but went to the Liberals in 2013. Burrill will be hoping some of that old NDP magic will be present tonight.

If the NDP were to win only one seat tonight, this is arguably the most important seat.

Will health care be the No. 1 issue?

Throughout this campaign, the Tories' Baillie and the NDP's Burrill have argued that the health-care system is in crisis as procedure wait times mount and people struggle to find family doctors.

They clearly see it as a weakness for the Liberals, who have acknowledged there's much work to be done, while stopping short of calling it a crisis.

With massive town hall meetings recently in Cape Breton to voice concerns about the system and doctors being more vocally critical than they've perhaps been before, health care could be the deciding factor for any close race, particularly in Cape Breton.

Did McNeil's shift from salaries to services backfire?

As the Liberal leader had one fight after another with organized labour — including health-care workers and teachers, the latter culminating in the province's first-ever teachers strike — McNeil and his team made a calculated gamble: that there are more people in the province who are not in unions than are, and that that majority would be receptive to the Liberal argument for slowing public-sector salary growth in an effort to balance the books and increase services.

During this campaign, many criticized McNeil's approach in his first mandate, which they characterized as confrontational, sometimes mean-spirited, and stubborn. But McNeil has countered throughout the campaign that his party has received support from plenty in the very groups with whom he's had tense times.

Whether he's correct will dictate his fate.

Who will win?

If the pollsters are correct, Nova Scotia will either have a Liberal or Tory government by the end of tonight. There are several things that need to happen for each scenario to play out.

For the Tories, they need to win seats in rural Nova Scotia and suburban Halifax that went Liberal in 2013 and they need the NDP to regain strength — and seats — in Metro Halifax and parts of Cape Breton. If those shifts happen, Baillie and his team will be sitting on the government side of Province House.

For the Liberals, it's pretty simple: they must retain enough of their gains from 2013 to offset any losses. To form a majority government, they must be strong in Halifax, just as they were in the last election, as well as maintain their rural seats. For a minority government, they can afford losses in one area or the other — but not in both.

The other thing that would benefit the Grits is if there is a strong opposition vote, but split evenly between the Tories and NDP, allowing them to come up the middle.