Expected to hit 2030 climate target, N.W.T. considers more ambitious goal

The N.W.T. government is considering setting more ambitious climate targets, acknowledging a lot of things have changed since it initially set the goals in 2018. 

"We committed to reviewing or revisiting our approach to energy and climate after five years," said Ben Israel, the territory's senior coordinator on energy. "That's the first reason why we started this conversation." 

The territory's current goal is to reduce emissions by 30 per cent of 2005 levels in the next seven years — a target it's likely to hit, said Israel, because of an economic slow down in the mining industry. 

The territory needs to reduce emissions by 193 kilotonnes in order to hit the 2030 goal. Though current policies are projected to reduce emissions by 51 kilotonnes by 2025, it looks like the expected closure of Rio Tinto's Diavik diamond mine in early 2026 will do a lot of the leg work. The mine emitted about 200 kilotonnes of greenhouse gas emissions per year in 2019 and 2020. 

"Is this how we want to meet the target?" wondered Israel. "I'm not sure."

The territory commissioned a study earlier this year, first reported by Cabin Radio, that examines four different emission scenarios: one with no new targets, one that achieves the current 2030 target and also strives for becoming net zero by 2050, and another that adopts the federal government's target of reducing emissions by 40 or 45 per cent in 2030 and becoming net zero by 2050. 

(If the world reaches net zero by 2050, it could limit warming to 1.5 C — a threshold set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement and subsequent climate accords to limit the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.)

One option also explored setting targets that didn't include the mining and oil and gas sectors. 

Israel said his department had been looking at what other provinces and territories were doing, and saw the Yukon had set separate industry targets in an effort to balance the need to reduce emissions and maintain the mining industry. 

Industry accounts for 34 per cent of the N.W.T.'s greenhouse gas emissions, while transportation accounts for 47 per cent, according to the latest inventory report prepared by Environment and Climate Change Canada. 

It will be up to the next Legislative Assembly to decide which target to pursue. 

What's the point of setting targets? 

Lynne Couves, a program director with the Pembina Institute, a renewable energy think tank, said setting targets is important because they help guide policy development and can hold governments and industries accountable for the work they are — or aren't — doing. 

She said the N.W.T. needs to align itself with the federal government's goal of lowering emissions by 40 to 45 per cent by 2030, and reaching net zero in the following twenty years. 

"I think it's important that goals are ambitious. This gives something for all industries in the territory to work toward," she said. "2050 seems like a long ways away, but it is an important one to factor in for long-term planning." 

Couves said effective targets have clear plans for engagement with Indigenous communities, and are backed up with policy and funding. 

"What's really important for government and policy makers is that they're firm on the target that they're setting and that the target is set for everyone in all sectors," she said. "That will allow everyone to meet the respective obligations." 

Neither Couves nor Israel could say whether a more ambitious target might discourage the mining industry from being interested in investing in the N.W.T. Couves did say, however, that ambitious targets could attract clean energy investors. 

Increasing the climate effort

The territorial government held a three-day engagement event in Yellowknife last week where people and non-government organizations from around the territory discussed energy and climate change with each other.

Information gathered at the event will inform the territory's five-year review of its Climate Change Strategy Framework and 2030 Energy Strategy (both released in 2018) as well as discussions about new targets. 

"We heard very loud and clear that there is a need to increase our level of effort when it comes to climate change," said Israel. "There was some sort of collective recognition that the world is moving on and we want to be part of it." 

Israel said Indigenous organizations and governments want to lead the territory's energy transformation. He also said there's "nothing crazy" about pathways identified in the report for reducing the territory's greenhouse gas emissions. 

Couves said Simon Dyer, Pembina's deputy executive director, attended the territory's event and found it to be "impressive." 

"We're seeing that they're more interested in engaging and receiving feedback," she said. "We haven't seen this behaviour in the Northwest Territories before." 

"I think there is an authentic desire to listen to people," said Israel, adding that, in the end, a decision about increasing the territory's targets will be a political one.