Churchill Falls tentative deal expected Thursday as N.L. tees up 'historic partnership announcement'
Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec are meeting Thursday in St. John's for what they're calling a "historic partnership agreement."
According to a press release issued at at noon on Wednesday, the announcement will be held jointly by Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey and Quebec Premier François Legault.
The announcement is scheduled at The Rooms for 2 p.m. and a livestream will be available on government social media pages.
Also in attendance will be Energy Minister Andrew Parsons, his Quebec counterpart Christine Fréchette as well as N.L. Hydro's Jennifer Williams.
The announcement is widely believed to address the multi-billion dollar Churchill Falls hydro-electric plant, the majority of which Newfoundland and Labrador owns, but the majority of revenue flows to Hydro-Quebec.
While the agreement between the provinces is set to expire in 2041, a renegotiated deal to renew the contract for the Churchill Falls hydroelectric project could be within reach, as first reported by Radio-Canada on Tuesday.
Speaking in French Wednesday morning, Legault said, "I'm going to Newfoundland this afternoon, but that's all I have to say at the moment."
Election speculation
News of a potential agreement over Churchill Falls has at least one politician suspecting a provincial election is in the air.
"We know how election debates go," NDP Leader Jim Dinn told CBC Radio's The St. John's Morning Show on Tuesday, ahead of the government's formal announcement.
"It gets to be very shortened and very, very polarized."
Rumours of a Newfoundland and Labrador election have been swirling for months. The province's fixed-date election laws have an election scheduled for Oct. 14, 2025, although Furey could call an election before that date.
"Neither the PCs nor the Liberals can be trusted when it comes to making a deal. So here's my thought: whatever deal comes out before the premier decides if a deal comes out — debate it in the House of Assembly," said Dinn.
Dinn wants all the details to be discussed in the legislature so the public can determine if it's a good deal.
"Let's have a thorough airing of it and make sure that it's actually a good deal," said Dinn.
Could be a win
Memorial University political science professor Amanda Bittner said a renegotiated deal, if accepted by the public, could be a significant victory for Furey.
"I would say that'd be a pretty big win for him. You know, it's hard to tell what the component parts of this are going to be, but our province is facing a lot of really big challenges right now," Bittner told Radio-Canada.
These problems — like the cost of living and food insecurity and housing, and health care — don't have easy solutions, she added.
"There's not a lot of easy wins here right now. And I think that a lot of voters are really sort of stressed out because of the increased pressure on them and their families and making ends meet."
Bittner said the provincial Liberals are worried about the impact of perceived ties to the federal Trudeau government and are mulling when to call an election.
Bittner said it's not clear whether a new Upper Churchill deal would make or break an election.
"Probably not, but at the same time can certainly help or hinder," she said.
Newfoundland and Labrador relied on outside investment to build the Churchill Falls project, and has been tied to a 65-year contract with Hydro-Quebec. Over the years, N.L. has earned a small fraction of the revenue that Hydro-Quebec has been able to earn by reselling the power.
The contract expires in 2041, and as the clock gradually runs out on the original deal, Newfoundland and Labrador politicians and pundits have assumed the province will have greater clout for better terms.
The Churchill Falls deal holds a lot of cultural and historic meaning in N.L., said Bittner, particularly in how the province relates to Canada and Quebec.
"How do we measure up compared to other provinces? How important are we for the country as a whole? And I think this is a big part of our kind of cultural lore, let's say," said Bittner.
The average person doesn't know much about the terms of the deal, she said, adding it's very complicated and other people have other issues they're preoccupied with, like work and family.
"I think that a lot of resentment has built up over a lot of time where, you know, Newfoundlanders and Labrador and generally tell themselves that, you know, Canada doesn't value us, that Quebec is more important to Canada than Newfoundland and Labrador is."
She also said it's likely the provincial government is "stressing" about the new deal, in part because of the symbolic role Churchill Fall has in the N.L. public but also any future ramifications from a renegotiated deal.
"I would imagine that there's a lot of anxiety around this moment right now for all those involved," said Bittner.
Details in public
Meanwhile, Dinn also has questions about the details of a new agreement, like if N.L. will get a better remuneration deal or if access to power will be improved, adding that's of particular interest to iron ore companies in Labrador — an issue for NDP MHA Jordan Brown, whose district Labrador West includes two towns dependent on iron ore mines.
"What does it mean for development of Gull Island, if indeed [I] heard that on the news as well," said Dinn, referring the long-planned but undeveloped Lower Churchill hydroelectric project.
"There are a lot of moving parts in this to this."
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