With a federal election looming, N.L.'s political landscape is in for a serious shakeup
Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to plunge the country into an election campaign as early as Sunday
Five of the six Liberal incumbents are heading for the exit. Potential successors, including a stable of Conservatives who are hungry to upend traditional voting patterns that favour the Liberals, are mobilizing. And with an election call expected on Sunday, the federal political scene in Newfoundland and Labrador is heating up.
An airline executive from Labrador. A deputy mayor from Mount Pearl. A ship's captain from the Goulds. A real estate agent from Deer Lake.
That's just a sampling of some of the people stepping forward in hopes of earning the trust of voters at an especially turbulent time in Canadian politics.
Only two of the seven MPs — Liberal Joanne Thompson (St. John's East) and Conservative Clifford Small (Central Newfoundland) — are seeking re-election, so the political landscape in Canada's most easterly province is guaranteed to undergo a serious shakeup in the post-Justin Trudeau era.
A crowded field in Cape Spear
Nowhere is this more evident than in Cape Spear, the redistributed riding formerly known as St. John's South-Mount Pearl.
After three election victories for the Liberals, Seamus O'Regan's name won't be on a ballot, but there's a flood of interest in occupying his seat in the House of Commons.
Paradise resident Corey Curtis, a vice-president with a shipping company, is the Conservative Party of Canada candidate, wants to "secure a better future for our families" through good jobs and a strong economy.
But with three well-known Liberals — Victoria Belbin, Nicole Kieley and Tom Osborne — seeking their party's nomination, Cape Spear is shaping up to be a race to watch when new Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney plunges the country into an election campaign, with a vote taking place as early as late April.
"I think the fact that in this riding you have three capable, competent individuals running for this nomination is a sign of that excitement and renewed interest in the Liberal party," said Osborne, who retired from provincial politics last summer after more than 28 years as a Member of the House of Assembly.
A stunning Liberal bounceback
The only real tally that counts is on election day, but according to recent public opinion polling, the Liberal party has witnessed a stunning reversal of fortunes. Not long ago, it appeared that Liberal support was on the verge of collapse, and the Conservatives would form a majority government under Leader Pierre Poilievre.
But now both parties are in a virtual dead heat, and the polls suggest support for the New Democrats is bleeding away.
During a casual meeting at a Mount Pearl bakery and coffee shop this week, all three prospective Liberal candidates in Cape Spear say the emergence of Carney — a former governor of the central banks in both Canada and Great Britain — and threats to Canada's sovereignty and economy by U.S. President Donald Trump is responsible for the Liberal bounceback.
"What I am seeing at the federal level is true leadership and courage," Kieley said of Carney.
"I truly have a lot of faith in a someone with good strong monetary background," Belbin added.
Hundreds of Liberals are expected to gather at a St. John's hotel on Friday night for a nomination vote, during which all three candidates will make speeches.
Regardless of the outcome, they say they will rally around the successful nominee.
"I'm excited for what's to come, no matter who is holding that seat," said Kieley, who is the deputy mayor in Mount Pearl.
St. John's East
Next door in St. John's East, longtime labour advocate Mary Shortall is the NDP candidate. She's back for another run at the seat after receiving more than 13,000 votes and finishing second to Thompson in the 2021 election.
"I believe that both the Conservatives and the Liberals have an agenda that doesn't always put working people first," Shortall said during an interview at a park in downtown St. John's.
But like Cape Spear, St. John's East is expected to be a compelling contest.
Last week, Thompson was appointed by Carney as Minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast, after serving briefly as Minister of Seniors in Trudeau's final cabinet.
David Brazil, who resigned from provincial politics in late 2023 after a 13-year career as an MHA, is the Conservative candidate in St. John's East.
Avalon
The departure of Liberal incumbent Ken McDonald has set the stage for a fresh face in the riding of Avalon, with McDonald expected to attempt a run at provincial politics after nearly a decade in Ottawa.
"I don't like being away from home so much," McDonald replied when asked why he's not seeking re-election.
The Conservatives are sensing an opening in this riding, and two people — Carbonear lawyer Jessica Babb and Branden O'Brien, a ship's captain with the Coast Guard — are scrambling to sign up supporters in a contest for the nomination.
"I think the big thing for me is affordability," said O'Brien, who believes Poilievre is the right man to lead Canada in these uncertain times.
"He's is committed to natural resource development," O'Brien added.
McDonald's executive assistant, Paul Connors, will try to succeed his boss as the representative for Avalon.
"I'm committed to continuing the work that has made this riding a better place," he wrote in a news release on Wednesday.
Terra Nova-The Peninsulas
The riding formerly known as Bonavista-Burin-Trinity has a new name, and will soon have a new representative. Churence Rogers was elected in a December 2017 byelection, but is retiring from politics.
Clarenville resident and engineer Jonathan Rowe will carry the Conservative banner, with a pledge to fight for a lower cost of living, support the natural resources economy, and "preserve our environment and culture, while standing up for our Canadian freedoms."
Anthony Germain, a teacher, communications consultant and retired CBC journalist, is seeking the Liberal nomination, saying in a recent social media post that Carney is "delivering the kind of change that Canadians want to see at this very difficult time."
Central Newfoundland
The political picture in Central Newfoundland is rather dull — at least for now — as the Liberals search for a candidate to take on the Conservative incumbent, Clifford Small.
Long Range Mountains
This west cost riding is also in play, with Liberal Gudie Hutchings announcing in January that she's leaving federal politics after more than nine years as the representative.
The Liberals have not yet named a candidate, but Conservative candidate Carol Anstey has been criss-crossing the riding for many months.
In the 2021 election, Anstey received 14,344 votes, just 1,834 behind Hutchings.
WATCH | From Cape Spear to the riding of Labrador, the race is underway:
Labrador
After nearly 12 years as the MP for Labrador, with four election victories to her credit, Yvonne Jones is another Liberal who is exiting the political stage.
The nomination process is not yet concluded, but airline executive Philip Earle is the leading contender to try and hold the seat for the Liberals.
The Conservative candidate is Happy Valley-Goose Bay's deputy mayor, Ella Wallace.
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