Decline in N.L. births a sign of weakening economic confidence
Layoffs, uncertainty in oil, mining industries starting to be felt on the maternity ward, says Rob Greenwood
A steady increase in the number of births recorded by Newfoundland and Labrador's largest health authority over the past three years appears to have come to an end.
And it's likely another sign of the province's weakening economy, says Rob Greenwood of the Memorial University's Harris Centre.
Eastern Health reports that 676 babies were born in the first quarter of 2015.
At that rate, the health authority is on pace to record just over 2,700 births this year, or nearly 350 fewer than last year.
Confidence was soaring
Greenwood believes it's a reflection of the uncertainty that is spreading from job cuts in the public sector, and a painful downturn in the oil and gas and mining industries.
He said it all began when then premier Kathy Dunderdale announced job cuts a few years ago. The news came as a shock to a province that had enjoyed record economic growth and spending for nearly a decade.
Births at Eastern Health
2012 - 2,855;
2013 - 2,991;
2014 - 3,047;
2015 - 676 (first quarter)
Note: Eastern Health is on track to record 2,704 births this year, which would represent a significant decrease from the three-year average of 2,974 births per year.
Central Health
2012 - 559;
2013 - 593;
2014 - 572;
2015 - 143 (first quarter)
Note: Central Health is on track to record 572 births this year, which would represent a decrease from the average number of births over the last three years, but would be on par with 2014.
Western Health
2012 - 582;
2013 - 589;
2014 - 594;
2015 - 134 (first quarter)
Note: Western Health is on track to record 536 births this year, which would represent a notable decrease from the previous three years.
Labrador Grenfell Health
2012 - 385;
2013 - 377;
2014 - 368;
2015 - 173 (January to June)
Note: Labrador Grenfell Health is on track to record 346 births this year, which is a decline from the three-year average of 376.
Total births
2012 - 4,381;
2013 - 4,550;
2014 - 4,581;
Note: this is the total number of births recorded by all four regional health authorities over the past three years.
The situation intensified following the shutdown of the iron ore mine in Wabush in early 2014, and continued with a dramatic decline in oil prices that began last summer.
The downturn has severely pinched off the flow of revenues into government coffers, with the provincial government forecasting deficits for the next five years.
The consequence? The soaring confidence that characterized so much of the province is now being shunted aside and replaced by uncertainty and hesitation, says Greenwood.
"I think for people, psychologically, planning a family ... well there's a nine-month lag at least, it takes a while for that to play out in society," he said.
The same trend is developing in the region covered by Western Health, where first-quarter results point to a decline in births.
The numbers for Central Health and Labrador Grenfell Health, however, indicates a smaller decline in births.
The apparent slowdown in births coincides with the release last month of a new population growth strategy by Premier Paul Davis.
Greenwood said economic confidence and affordable childcare are two of the most important factors in growing a population.
Right now, he said, both those factors are missing in Newfoundland and Labrador.
"It's the most difficult challenge I could imagine," Greenwood said of the idea of growing the population.
Newfoundland and Labrador has the lowest fertility rate and birth rate in the country, and Greenwood believes the increase in births at Eastern Health in recent years was a reflection of the upbeat mood in the province.
"It's has been a really good place to live, for the most part, over the last decade," he said.
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