If C-NLOPB's estimates are right, Bay du Nord's potential surpasses a billion barrels

Newfoundland and Labrador's oil and gas regulator has for the first time released an estimate of recoverable oil from Equinor's Cambriol discovery in the Flemish Basin, potentially adding millions more barrels of recoverable oil to the stalled Bay du Nord megaproject. 

In a press release, the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board wrote its interpretation of the well and seismic data associated with the discovery has the untapped resource sitting at an estimated 340 million barrels.

Cambriol was discovered by the Norwegian oil giant in 2020 as part of the larger Bay du Nord project. 

The C-NLOPB's new estimate, released Friday, potentially increases the number of recoverable barrels of oil from the project, which was postponed by up to three years in May following "changing market conditions and subsequent high cost inflation," Equinor said at the time. 

Company spokesperson Alex Collins wrote in a statement to Radio-Canada that Equinor "continues its internal evaluation and assessment of potentially economically and technically recoverable resources at the Cambriol discovery made in 2020."

A year ago, the board released estimates for Cappahayden, a discovery also made by Equinor in 2020. That discovery is estimated to contain 385 million barrels, and the board's estimate pushed Bay du Nord's potential to just under one billion barrels of oil.

The board's estimate for Cambriol pushes that number over the top. 

But the numbers from the C-NLOPB and Equinor vary. Both sides have different figures and different estimates for different reasons. 

WATCH | Energy N.L. CEO Charlene Johnson says Equinor is still committed to Bay du Nord: 

Equinor exploring cost-cutting measures show dedication to Bay du Nord project: Energy N.L. CEO

1 year ago

Duration 0:34

Energy N.L. CEO Charlene Johnson says Equinor wants the Bay du Nord project to be a success — and that involves looking at ways to lower development costs. One scenario could see Equinor hire another company to supply and operate a floating production, storage and offloading vessel, known as an FPSO. PC MHA Lloyd Parrott has asked whether that will mean fewer local jobs, but Johnson says it’s far too early to know.

Equinor is remaining cautious. 

"Equinor estimates recoverable reserves are greater than 500 million barrels related to the Bay du Nord development project — this estimate includes the 2013 Bay du Nord discovery, as well as the 2020 Cappahayden and Cambriol discoveries," Collins wrote.

"Across the industry, resource estimates can vary based on a number of geological factors and interpretations. Equinor's evaluation of recoverable estimates for the Bay du Nord development project relate to volumes that are considered economically and technically recoverable, as opposed to potential or possible recoverable resources. It is common to experience differences in how volumes are assessed and estimated in different evaluations." 

On Friday, the C-NLOPB also issued a significant discovery licence to Equinor.

The company now has the right to explore and exclusive rights to drill and test for petroleum, develop frontier lands in order to produce petroleum and obtain a production licence, subject to compliance with provisions of the Canada Petroleum Resources Act. 

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